IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v534y2019ics0378437119311756.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of financial time series through forbidden patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Ji, Aiwen
  • Shang, Pengjian

Abstract

The forbidden pattern is consistently considered to be an instrument of discriminating the potentially deterministic time series from random one. As a complexity parameter, the forbidden pattern is valuable for the real-world time series since noise eliminations are not needed—it focuses on the comparison of adjacent values. In some cases, based on the permutation entropy and the Bandt–Pompe (BP) methodology, it turns to analogous results with the Lyapunov exponent, with faster calculation and better robustness, however. In this work, we use the approach of the number of forbidden patterns to distinguish completely random behavior and potentially deterministic dynamic system in the real world. In particular, we pay attention to the performance of the method in the financial time series. In addition, we are concerned about the effect of time delays on determinism of stock indices and make a discussion of the sensitivity of different stock indices to time delays. Moreover, in this paper we focus on the evolution of deterministic behavior, pointing out that it is effective to use this method to quantify the degree of determinism in different time states. We can see that the approach of the number of forbidden patterns has excellent characteristics in terms of capturing potential properties of financial systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji, Aiwen & Shang, Pengjian, 2019. "Analysis of financial time series through forbidden patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:534:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119311756
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119311756
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Forbidden patterns, permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2854-2864.
    2. Chstoph Bandt & Faten Shiha, 2007. "Order Patterns in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 646-665, September.
    3. G. Spada & J. Farmer & F. Lillo, 2008. "The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 64(3), pages 607-614, August.
    4. Kantz, Holger & Olbrich, Eckehard, 2000. "Coarse grained dynamical entropies: Investigation of high-entropic dynamical systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 280(1), pages 34-48.
    5. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2000. "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0008113, arXiv.org.
    6. Keller, K. & Sinn, M., 2005. "Ordinal analysis of time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 356(1), pages 114-120.
    7. Rosso, Osvaldo A. & Carpi, Laura C. & Saco, Patricia M. & Gómez Ravetti, Martín & Plastino, Angelo & Larrondo, Hilda A., 2012. "Causality and the entropy–complexity plane: Robustness and missing ordinal patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 42-55.
    8. Saco, Patricia M. & Carpi, Laura C. & Figliola, Alejandra & Serrano, Eduardo & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Entropy analysis of the dynamics of El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the Holocene," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 5022-5027.
    9. Groenen, Patrick J. F. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Visualizing time-varying correlations across stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 155-172, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosso, Osvaldo A. & Carpi, Laura C. & Saco, Patricia M. & Gómez Ravetti, Martín & Plastino, Angelo & Larrondo, Hilda A., 2012. "Causality and the entropy–complexity plane: Robustness and missing ordinal patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 42-55.
    2. Montani, Fernando & Deleglise, Emilia B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2014. "Efficiency characterization of a large neuronal network: A causal information approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 58-70.
    3. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Complexity-entropy causality plane: A useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1891-1901.
    4. Redelico, Francisco O. & Traversaro, Francisco & Oyarzabal, Nicolás & Vilaboa, Ivan & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2017. "Evaluation of the status of rotary machines by time causal Information Theory quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 321-329.
    5. Olivares, Felipe & Plastino, Angelo & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "Ambiguities in Bandt–Pompe’s methodology for local entropic quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2518-2526.
    6. De Micco, Luciana & Fernández, Juana Graciela & Larrondo, Hilda A. & Plastino, Angelo & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "Sampling period, statistical complexity, and chaotic attractors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2564-2575.
    7. Zunino, Luciano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serinaldi, Francesco & Zanin, Massimiliano & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2011. "Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 876-890.
    8. Alexander Schnurr, 2015. "An Ordinal Pattern Approach to Detect and to Model Leverage Effects and Dependence Structures Between Financial Time Series," Papers 1502.07321, arXiv.org.
    9. Sinn, Mathieu & Keller, Karsten, 2011. "Estimation of ordinal pattern probabilities in Gaussian processes with stationary increments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1781-1790, April.
    10. Zunino, L. & Pérez, D.G. & Kowalski, A. & Martín, M.T. & Garavaglia, M. & Plastino, A. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "Fractional Brownian motion, fractional Gaussian noise, and Tsallis permutation entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6057-6068.
    11. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2010. "Complex stock trading network among investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4929-4941.
    12. Christoph Bandt, 2020. "Order patterns, their variation and change points in financial time series and Brownian motion," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1565-1588, August.
    13. Rosso, Osvaldo A. & De Micco, Luciana & Plastino, A. & Larrondo, Hilda A., 2010. "Info-quantifiers’ map-characterization revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4604-4612.
    14. Niu, Hongli & Wang, Jun & Liu, Cheng, 2018. "Analysis of crude oil markets with improved multiscale weighted permutation entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 389-402.
    15. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & de Araújo, Fernando H.A. & Silva, Igor E.M. & Neto, Jusie S.P., 2021. "Macroeconophysics indicator of economic efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 573(C).
    16. Christoph Bandt, 2019. "Order patterns, their variation and change points in financial time series and Brownian motion," Papers 1910.09978, arXiv.org.
    17. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Libor at crossroads: Stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 172-182.
    18. Olivares, Felipe & Zunino, Luciano, 2020. "Multiscale dynamics under the lens of permutation entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    19. Annika Betken & Jannis Buchsteiner & Herold Dehling & Ines Münker & Alexander Schnurr & Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2021. "Ordinal patterns in long‐range dependent time series," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(3), pages 969-1000, September.
    20. Traversaro, Francisco & Redelico, Francisco O., 2018. "Characterization of autoregressive processes using entropic quantifiers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 13-23.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:534:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119311756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.