IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v76y2018icp391-404.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the production impacts of a widespread conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, Laurence G.
  • Jones, Philip J.
  • Kirk, Guy J.D.
  • Pearce, Bruce D.
  • Williams, Adrian. G.

Abstract

We assess the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales using a large-scale linear programming model. The model includes a range of typical farm structures, scaled up across the available land area, with the objective of maximising food production. The effects of soil and rainfall, nitrogen (N) supply/offtake and livestock feed demand are accounted for. Results reveal major reductions in wheat and barley production, whilst the production of minor cereals such as oats and rye increase. Monogastric livestock and milk production also decreased considerably, whilst beef and sheep numbers increased. Vegetable production was generally comparable to that under conventional farming. Minimising the area of fertility building leys and/or improving rates of N fixation increased the food supply from organic agriculture at the national level. The total food output, in terms of metabolisable energy, was 64% of that under conventional farming. This would necessitate substantial increases in food imports, with corresponding expansion of cultivated agricultural land overseas. Significant changes in diet and reductions in food waste would be required to offset the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Laurence G. & Jones, Philip J. & Kirk, Guy J.D. & Pearce, Bruce D. & Williams, Adrian. G., 2018. "Modelling the production impacts of a widespread conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 391-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:391-404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.02.035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837717309882
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.02.035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Ingram, 2017. "Perspective: Look beyond production," Nature, Nature, vol. 544(7651), pages 17-17, April.
    2. Tzilivakis, J. & Warner, D.J. & May, M. & Lewis, K.A. & Jaggard, K., 2005. "An assessment of the energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions in sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) production in the UK," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 101-119, August.
    3. Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika & Ekstrom, Marianne Pipping & Shanahan, Helena, 2003. "Food and life cycle energy inputs: consequences of diet and ways to increase efficiency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2-3), pages 293-307, March.
    4. Jones, Philip & Salter, Andrew, 2013. "Modelling the economics of farm-based anaerobic digestion in a UK whole-farm context," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 215-225.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paarlberg, Robert, 2022. "The trans-Atlantic conflict over “green” farming," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Senapati, Ujjal & Das, Tapan Kumar, 2024. "Delineation of potential alternative agriculture region using RS and AHP-based GIS techniques in the drought prone upper Dwarakeswer river basin, West Bengal, India," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    3. Gökhan Uzel & Serkan Gürlük & Esma Aslak & Feza Karaer, 2022. "Land use preferences considering resource economics: case of organic versus conventional wheat production in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 14375-14392, December.
    4. Cisilino, Federica & Bodini, Antonella & Zanoli, Agostina, 2019. "Rural development programs’ impact on environment: An ex-post evaluation of organic faming," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 454-462.
    5. Barbieri, Pietro & Starck, Thomas & Voisin, Anne-Sophie & Nesme, Thomas, 2023. "Biological nitrogen fixation of legumes crops under organic farming as driven by cropping management: A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Nesar Ahmed & Shirley Thompson & Giovanni M. Turchini, 2020. "Organic aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and food security: insights from organic agriculture," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1253-1267, December.
    7. Sadowski, Arkadiusz & Wojcieszak-Zbierska, Monika & Zmyślona, Jagoda, 2021. "Economic Situation of Organic Farms in Poland on the Background of the European Union," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 319699, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wood, Richard & Lenzen, Manfred & Dey, Christopher & Lundie, Sven, 2006. "A comparative study of some environmental impacts of conventional and organic farming in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 324-348, September.
    2. Whiting, Andrew & Azapagic, Adisa, 2014. "Life cycle environmental impacts of generating electricity and heat from biogas produced by anaerobic digestion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 181-193.
    3. Risku-Norja, Helmi & Maenpaa, Ilmo, 2007. "MFA model to assess economic and environmental consequences of food production and consumption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 700-711, February.
    4. Ari Paloviita, 2010. "Consumers’ Sustainability Perceptions of the Supply Chain of Locally Produced Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(6), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Arto O. Salonen & Jani Siirilä & Mikko Valtonen, 2018. "Sustainable Living in Finland: Combating Climate Change in Everyday Life," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Distefano, Tiziano & Chiarotti, Guido & Laio, Francesco & Ridolfi, Luca, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of the International Food Prices: Unexpected Heterogeneity and Randomness," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 122-132.
    7. Olfa Gharsallah & Claudio Gandolfi & Arianna Facchi, 2021. "Methodologies for the Sustainability Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems, with a Focus on Rice: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Kumar, Rohit & Bhardwaj, Arvind & Singh, Lakhwinder Pal & Singh, Gurraj, 2023. "Quantifying ecological impacts: A comparative life cycle assessment of conventional and organic potato cultivation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    9. Ghada Talat Alhothali & Noha M. Almoraie & Israa M. Shatwan & Najlaa M. Aljefree, 2021. "Sociodemographic Characteristics and Dietary Choices as Determinants of Climate Change Understanding and Concern in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-14, October.
    10. Yoshikawa, Naoki & Fujiwara, Natsumi & Nagata, Junko & Amano, Koji, 2016. "Greenhouse gases reduction potential through consumer’s behavioral changes in terms of food-related product selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1564-1570.
    11. Licheng Sun & Qunwei Wang & Shilong Ge, 2018. "Urban resident energy-saving behavior: a case study under the A2SC framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 515-536, March.
    12. Coley, David & Howard, Mark & Winter, Michael, 2009. "Local food, food miles and carbon emissions: A comparison of farm shop and mass distribution approaches," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 150-155, April.
    13. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    14. Hu, Ming-Che & Chen, Yu-Hui & Huang, Li-Chun, 2014. "A sustainable vegetable supply chain using plant factories in Taiwanese markets: A Nash–Cournot model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 49-56.
    15. Cristea, Anca & Hummels, David & Puzzello, Laura & Avetisyan, Misak, 2013. "Trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-173.
    16. Iria Soto & Berta Sanchez Fernandez & Manuel Gomez Barbero & Thomas Fellmann & Emilio Rodriguez Cerezo, 2017. "Datasets on technological GHG emissions mitigation options for the agriculture sector," JRC Research Reports JRC104084, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Hossein Kazemi Author- Department of Agronomy, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources (GUASNR), Iran, 2016. "Energy Balance in Modern Agroecosystems; Why and How?," Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 1(5), pages 101-104, June.
    18. Browne, David & O'Regan, Bernadette & Moles, Richard, 2009. "Use of ecological footprinting to explore alternative domestic energy and electricity policy scenarios in an Irish city-region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2205-2213, June.
    19. Bartłomiej Bajan & Aldona Mrówczyńska-Kamińska & Walenty Poczta, 2020. "Economic Energy Efficiency of Food Production Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, November.
    20. Rehkamp, Sarah & Canning, Patrick, 2016. "The Effects of American Diets on Food System Energy Use," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235896, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:391-404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.