Socioeconomic and political settings for the land development decreasing urban green. Inside view from Moscow

The analysis shows the impact of socioeconomic factors and civil freedom on allocating green areas for investments. The research was conducted for the period 1992–2020 using the example of Moscow as the metropolis in a country with a robust centralized political system. Quantitative research methods included recognizing changes in land use, selected socioeconomic parameters, and indicators measuring the power of civil society. Calculated correlations and modeling of the collected data were used to identify Russia's revenue for petroleum and Moscow's budget revenue as predictors for losing green areas. Among the social activity indicators, the Press Freedom indicator was the best correlated and used for modeling. The analysis of the decision-making procedure for land development and the reconstruction of the case Krylatskie Kholmy allowed gaining insight into actual mechanisms leading to investment in urban green areas. The outcomes that were reachedexpress that investing in bare soils is of the most significant importance; however, the dynamics of change decreased in the analyzed period. The modeling showed that growing Russia's revenue for petroleum increases the likelihood of greenfield investment. The legal nature-protection status brings the most significant effect of preventing land development. The likelihood of land development decreases with the growth of Moscow's budget revenue. It indicates the support for the redevelopment of abounded land located within the range of the existing infrastructure. The modeling of the dependence between the Press Freedom index and land development probability demonstrates the possible effectiveness of public opinion pressure to protect natural and semi-natural areas within the urban fabric. The described decision-making mechanism for land development made it possible to assess that the role of civil society in the decision-making process is insufficient, given the converging interests of investors and administration. The results show that in highly centralized countries with a marginal role of civil society, the concentration of capital from the export of strategic natural resources is the key factor of urban green losses. These findings contribute to understanding differences in urban spatial policy approaches to green areas and their effectiveness.