Vehicle electrification and fuel economy policies: Impacts on agricultural land-use in the United States

In the United States (U.S.), decarbonization of the transportation sector has important implications for agriculture because approximately one-third of maize production is used for ethanol. For six major U.S. crops, the effects on commodity prices, county-level land allocation, and farm net returns of an increased battery electric vehicles (BEV) market share (including a phaseout of gasoline vehicles by 2035 in a subset of states) and higher fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles (LDV) are quantified. Scenarios are centered around different energy prices, economic growth trajectories, and ethanol blending limits. The results show a decline of maize prices by up to 17.3% if a BEV sales market share in the LDV sector of 100% is achieved in 2050. For the same electrification scenario, total cropland declines by 1.2%–2.2% (depending on the macroeconomic environment) compared to the baseline. There are important farm welfare implications due to spatial differences in land productivity and crops harvested. The potential long-term decline in maize ethanol use is mostly triggered by vehicle electrification and less by fuel efficiency standards. Although bioenergy plays an important role in achieving future energy and climate goals, the role of maize as a liquid fuel is potentially limited.