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Predicting impacts of major projects on housing prices in resource based towns with a case study application to Gladstone, Australia

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  • Akbar, Delwar
  • Rolfe, John
  • Kabir, S.M. Zobaidul

Abstract

The resources sector in Australia makes a major contribution to the national economy, and underpins employment and population in the mining and mineral processing towns. For those towns, rapid growth in employment can generate particular pressures in local housing markets because of the relatively large size of the industry and the small housing stocks involved. Through a case study of Gladstone, the study provides a dynamic five-step population and housing model, to estimate short to medium term mining impacts of major resource developments. The model includes both the direct and indirect labour force generated by new resource sector developments and their flow-on effects on population increases. Sensitivity testing has allowed for different levels of resource development, employment multipliers and labour inflows. Three different approaches have then been applied to predict the housing price impacts of the expected population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Akbar, Delwar & Rolfe, John & Kabir, S.M. Zobaidul, 2013. "Predicting impacts of major projects on housing prices in resource based towns with a case study application to Gladstone, Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 481-489.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:481-489
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2009. "Differences in housing price forecastability across US states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 351-372.
    2. Han, Xuehui, 2010. "Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-376, June.
    3. John Rolfe & Daniel Gregg & Galina Ivanova & Reuben Lawrence & David Rynne, 2011. "The Economic Contribution of the Resources Sector by Regional Areas in Queensland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 15-36, March.
    4. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
    2. Owen, John R. & Kemp, Deanna, 2017. "Social management capability, human migration and the global mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 259-266.
    3. Rehner, Johannes & Rodríguez, Sebastián, 2021. "Cities built on copper – The impact of mining exports, wages and financial liquidity on urban economies in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Zheng Zheng Li & Chi-Wei Su, 2023. "How does real estate market react to the iron ore boom in Australian capital cities?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(2), pages 517-537, October.
    5. Keeler, Zachary T. & Stephens, Heather M., 2020. "Valuing shale gas development in resource-dependent communities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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