IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v34y2009i4p161-175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends

Author

Listed:
  • Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk
  • Buchholz, Peter
  • Riemann, Axel
  • Wagner, Markus

Abstract

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach. Based on this model, companies can make better informed decisions for their market assessment and may use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments. Understanding future supply conditions is especially useful when selecting new technologies for products which require an intensive use of raw materials. As an example, the method is applied to the copper market as of 2006. It is important to emphasise that nobody can foresee the future of raw material prices. But we may aim to better understand the weaknesses of these markets which may lead to future supply shortages thus influencing price.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:34:y:2009:i:4:p:161-175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4207(09)00035-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
    2. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426, December.
    3. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Frondel, Manuel & Grösche, Peter & Huchtermann, Dirk & Oberheitmann, Andreas & Peters, Jörg & Angerer, Gerhard & Sartorius, Christian & Buchholz, Peter & Röhling, Simone & Wagner, Markus, 2007. "Trends der Angebots- und Nachfragesituation bei mineralischen Rohstoffen: Endbericht. Forschungsprojekt Nr. 09/05 des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie (BMWi)," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70880.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Knowledge Economy and Financial Sector Competition in African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 333-346, June.
    2. Ahmet Faruk AYSAN & Mustapha Kamel NABLI & Marie‐Ange VÉGANZONÈS‐VAROUDAKIS, 2007. "Governance Institutions And Private Investment: An Application To The Middle East And North Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(3), pages 339-377, September.
    3. Martínez, Rodrigo & Fernández, Andrés, 2008. "The cost of hunger: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in Central America and the Dominican Republic," Documentos de Proyectos 39315, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    6. Montoya, Miguel A. & Trillas, Francesc, 2007. "The measurement of the independence of telecommunications regulatory agencies in Latin America and the Caribbean," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 182-190, September.
    7. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    8. Shunichi Fukuhara & Chikao Yamazaki & Yasuaki Hayashino & Takahiro Higashi & Margaret Eichleay & Takashi Akiba & Tadao Akizawa & Akira Saito & Friedrich Port & Kiyoshi Kurokawa, 2007. "The organization and financing of end-stage renal disease treatment in Japan," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 217-231, September.
    9. Alberto Chong & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, 2006. "Corporate Governance and Firm Value in Mexico," Research Department Publications 4466, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Najarzadeh, Reza & Rahimzadeh, Farzad & Reed, Michael, 2014. "Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 986-993.
    11. Arvind Virmani, 2009. "China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons for Democratic Developing Countries," Working Papers id:1899, eSocialSciences.
    12. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 2009. "The Gambia: Demand for Broad Money and Implications for Monetary Policy Conduct," IMF Working Papers 2009/192, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Masako Ikefuji & Ryo Horii, 2007. "Wealth Heterogeneity and Escape from the Poverty–Environment Trap," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 9(6), pages 1041-1068, December.
    14. Darren Duxbury & Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey & Zhishu Yang & Songyao Yao, 2013. "How prior realized outcomes affect portfolio decisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 611-629, November.
    15. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    16. Wyplosz, Charles, 2006. "Regional exchange rate arrangements: the European experience," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1927, September.
    17. J. Ram Pillarisetti & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2008. "Sustainable Nations: What do Aggregate Indicators tell us?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-012/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Christian Bjørnskov & Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of life satisfaction: exploring different determinants across groups in society," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 30(1), pages 119-173, January.
    19. Christian Rogg, 2006. "Asset Portfolios in Africa: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-145, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Mihaela Simona Dogan, 2012. "Other Tools For Growth And Jobs Of Europe 2020 Strategy," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 404-406, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:34:y:2009:i:4:p:161-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.