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In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog

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  • Haug, Alfred A.
  • King, Ian

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that, in the long run, the Phillips curve is vertical. We re-examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010, and state-of-the art econometric methods. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3–312years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50years. Tests for multiple structural changes at unknown dates show that this relationship is stable. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen et al. (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

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  • Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:42-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.04.003
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    3. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    4. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Huangfu, Stella & Sun, Hongfei, 2020. "The role of search frictions in the long-run relationships between inflation, unemployment and capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Nkoba, Malik Abdulrahman & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Revisiting the Phillips curve trade-off: evidence from Tanzania using nonlinear ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 91631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Kuk Mo Jung & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2020. "A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices," Working Papers 2001, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    11. Dong, Mei & Huangfu, Stella, 2021. "Unemployment and Imperfections in Labour and Credit Markets," Working Papers 2021-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Dec 2021.
    12. Antonio Ribba, 2017. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 765-777.
    13. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Antonio Ribba, 2015. "What Drives US Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run?," Department of Economics 0053, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. Antonio Ribba, 2016. "Productivity Growth Shocks and Unemployment in the Postwar US Economy," Department of Economics 0077, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; The long-run;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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