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Taming the global financial cycle: What role for the global financial safety net?

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  • Scheubel, Beatrice
  • Stracca, Livio
  • Tille, Cédric

Abstract

An ongoing active debate considers the role of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) in driving international capital flows - especially in emerging economies - as well as the policy options available to absorb their impact. We make two contributions to the debate. First, we rely on a structural measure of the GFC developed in a companion paper to identify episodes of large capital flows and currency crises driven by global conditions. Second, using both OLS and instrumental variables we evaluate whether the availability and actual use of elements of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) can help emerging markets cushion the impact of these episodes. We find some evidence that potential access to IMF support can help countries. We also find that the use of IMF support and reserves cushions the impact of global shocks on GDP growth. This effect is quite heterogeneous across types of crises and across time, as it is mostly present during currency crises, and the benefits only occur with a delay.

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  • Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "Taming the global financial cycle: What role for the global financial safety net?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 160-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:160-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.01.015
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    1. Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Tille, Cédric, 2019. "The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?," Working Paper Series 2337, European Central Bank.
    2. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.
    4. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    5. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Widiantoro, Dimas Mukhlas, 2022. "Countercyclical capital buffer: building the resilience or taming the rapid financial cycle?," MPRA Paper 113507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Emilio Abad-Segura & Mariana-Daniela González-Zamar & Eloy López-Meneses & Esteban Vázquez-Cano, 2020. "Financial Technology: Review of Trends, Approaches and Management," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-37, June.
    8. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence in Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03774248, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Global financial cycle; Global financial safety net; IMF lending; Reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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