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Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience

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  • Feld, Lars P.
  • Kalb, Alexander
  • Moessinger, Marc-Daniel
  • Osterloh, Steffen

Abstract

We analyse the effects of a credible no-bailout policy and stringent sub-national fiscal rules on the risk premia of Swiss sub-national government bonds in the period from 1981 to 2007. In July 2003, the Swiss Supreme Court decided that the canton of Valais is not liable for municipal debt. This landmark decision reduced cantonal risk premia by about 26 basis points and cut the link between cantonal risk premia and the financial situation of the municipalities that existed before. The result demonstrates that a not fully credible no-bailout commitment can entail high costs for the potential guarantor. Additionally, strong and credible balanced budget rules reduce risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:319-343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.09.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Janeba, Eckhard & Steinbach, Armin, 2019. "Compliance effects of sovereign debt cuts," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2020. "Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Christian F. Pfeil & Lars P. Feld, 2024. "Does the Swiss Debt Brake Induce Sound Federal Finances? A Synthetic Control Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 3-41, January.
    4. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2018. "Vertical effects of fiscal rules: the Swiss experience," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 673-721, June.
    6. Lars P. Feld & Martin Beznoska & Oliver Holtemöller & Hans-Peter Burghof & Ulrike Neyer & Clemens Fuest & Friedrich Heinemann & Thomas König, 2020. "Record Debts to Combat Covid-19 Consequences – What Can the State Afford?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(08), pages 03-32, August.
    7. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael M. & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E., 2019. "European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 3-21.
    9. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Chirinko, Robert, 2023. "What went wrong? The Puerto Rican debt crisis, the “Treasury Put,” and the failure of market discipline," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Ramon Christen & Nils C. Soguel, 2019. "How can states benefit from the equity premium puzzle? Debt as revenue source for Swiss cantons," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Xueying & Zhang, Aoran & Wang, Yulin, 2021. "Fact or fiction: Implicit government guarantees in China’s corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    14. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
    15. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    16. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 71-90, March.
    17. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    18. Feld, Lars P., 2018. "The quest for fiscal rules," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 18/09, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    19. Fabio Sigrist & Patrick Köchli & Christoph Lengwiler, 2018. "Determinants of municipal loan spreads: empirical evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 143-166, May.
    20. Li, Shanshan & Lu, Liping, 2023. "No-bailout event and local bank-government nexus in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    21. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. Tima T. Moldogaziev & Sharon N. Kioko & W. Bartley Hildreth, 2017. "Impact of Bankruptcy Eligibility Requirements and Statutory Liens on Borrowing Costs," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 47-73, December.
    23. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    24. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sub-national government bonds; Fiscal rules; No-bailout clause; Sovereign risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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