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Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment

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  • McGuire, Thomas G.
  • Glazer, Jacob
  • Newhouse, Joseph P.
  • Normand, Sharon-Lise
  • Shi, Julie
  • Sinaiko, Anna D.
  • Zuvekas, Samuel H.

Abstract

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).

Suggested Citation

  • McGuire, Thomas G. & Glazer, Jacob & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Normand, Sharon-Lise & Shi, Julie & Sinaiko, Anna D. & Zuvekas, Samuel H., 2013. "Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1263-1277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:32:y:2013:i:6:p:1263-1277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2013.05.002
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    11. Glazer, Jacob & McGuire, Thomas G., 2011. "Gold and Silver health plans: Accommodating demand heterogeneity in managed competition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1011-1019.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Newhouse & Mary Price & John Hsu & J. Michael McWilliams & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "How Much Favorable Selection Is Left in Medicare Advantage?," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-26, Winter.
    2. Peter Paul Klein & Richard van Kleef & Josefa Henriquez & Francesco Paolucci, 2023. "The interplay between risk adjustment and risk rating in voluntary health insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(1), pages 59-91, March.
    3. A. A. Withagen-Koster & R. C. Kleef & F. Eijkenaar, 2020. "Incorporating self-reported health measures in risk equalization through constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(4), pages 513-528, June.
    4. Normann Lorenz, 2014. "Using quantile regression for optimal risk adjustment," Research Papers in Economics 2014-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Jacob Glazer & Thomas G. McGuire & Julie Shi, 2016. "Risk Adjustment of Health Plan Payments to Correct Inefficient Plan Choice from Adverse Selection," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, pages 379-418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Normann Lorenz, 2014. "The interaction of direct and indirect risk selection," Research Papers in Economics 2014-12, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Schmid, Christian P.R. & Beck, Konstantin, 2016. "Re-insurance in the Swiss health insurance market: Fit, power, and balance," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 848-855.
    8. Julie Shi & Yi Yao & Gordon Liu, 2018. "Modeling individual health care expenditures in China: Evidence to assist payment reform in public insurance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(12), pages 1945-1962, December.
    9. Timothy J. Layton & Thomas G. McGuire & Anna D. Sinaiko, 2016. "Risk Corridors and Reinsurance in Health Insurance Marketplaces: Insurance for Insurers," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 66-95, January.
    10. Richard C. Kleef & Thomas G. McGuire & René C. J. A. Vliet & Wynand P. P. M. de Ven, 2017. "Improving risk equalization with constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(9), pages 1137-1156, December.
    11. Julie Shi, 2017. "Efficiency in Plan Choice with Risk Adjustment and Risk-Based Pricing in Health Insurance Exchanges," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(1), pages 79-113, January.
    12. Richard van Kleef & Thomas McGuire & Rene van Vliet & Wynand van de Ven, 2015. "Improving Risk Equalization with Constrained Regression," NBER Working Papers 21570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Timothy J. Layton & Thomas G. McGuire, 2017. "Marketplace Plan Payment Options for Dealing with High-Cost Enrollees," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 165-191, Spring.
    14. Timothy J. Layton & Randall P. Ellis & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-024, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    15. Timothy J. Layton & Thomas G. McGuire & Anna D. Sinaiko, 2016. "Risk Corridors and Reinsurance in Health Insurance Marketplaces: Insurance for Insurers," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 66-95, Winter.
    16. Normann Lorenz, 2017. "Using Quantile and Asymmetric Least Squares Regression for Optimal Risk Adjustment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 724-742, June.
    17. Anna Zink & Sherri Rose, 2020. "Fair regression for health care spending," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 973-982, September.
    18. Withagen-Koster, Anja A. & van Kleef, Richard C. & Eijkenaar, Frank, 2023. "Predictable profits and losses in a health insurance market with risk equalization: A multiple-contract period perspective," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Olivier Darmouni & Dan Zeltzer, 2022. "Horizon effects and adverse selection in health insurance markets," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 800-827, May.
    20. Lorenz, Normann, 2015. "The interaction of direct and indirect risk selection," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 81-89.
    21. Daniel Montanera & Abhay Nath Mishra & T. S. Raghu, 2022. "Mitigating Risk Selection in Healthcare Entitlement Programs: A Beneficiary-Level Competitive Bidding Approach," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 1221-1247, December.
    22. Jing Chen & Randall P. Ellis & Katherine H. Toro & Arlene S. Ash, 2015. "Mispricing in Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-020, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    23. Viktor von Wyl & Konstantin Beck, 2014. "Risk adjustment in aging societies," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
    24. McGuire, Thomas G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Normand, Sharon-Lise & Shi, Julie & Zuvekas, Samuel, 2014. "Assessing incentives for service-level selection in private health insurance exchanges," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 47-63.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk adjustment; Premiums; Health insurance; Exchanges; Medicare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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