IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v148y2023i3p273-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam

Author

Listed:
  • Korevaar, Matthijs

Abstract

Do investors reach for yield when interest rates are low and does this behavior affect the housing market? Using the unique setting and data of 18th-century Amsterdam, I show that reach-for-yield behavior of wealthy investors resulted in a large boom and bust in house prices and major changes in rental yields. Exploiting changes in the supply of bonds, I show that investors living off capital income shifted their portfolios towards real estate and other higher-yielding assets when bond yields were low and decreasing. This behavior exacerbated house price volatility and increased housing wealth inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:148:y:2023:i:3:p:273-296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X23000648
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2018. "Home away from home? Foreign demand and London house prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 532-555.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2022. "Credit Supply and Housing Speculation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 680-719.
    4. Clara Martínez Toledano, 2020. "House Price Cycles, Wealth Inequality and Portfolio Reshuffling," Working Papers hal-02876979, HAL.
    5. van Bochove, Christiaan, 2013. "Configuring Financial Markets in Preindustrial Europe," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 247-278, March.
    6. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    7. Clara Martínez Toledano, 2020. "House Price Cycles, Wealth Inequality and Portfolio Reshuffling," World Inequality Lab Working Papers hal-02876979, HAL.
    8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    9. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    10. Wojciech Kopczuk & Joseph P. Lupton, 2007. "To Leave or Not to Leave: The Distribution of Bequest Motives," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 207-235.
    11. Malcolm Baker & Stefan Nagel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 231-292.
    12. Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949–2016," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3469-3519.
    13. Frehen, Rik G.P. & Goetzmann, William N. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 2013. "New evidence on the first financial bubble," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 585-607.
    14. Konstantin Bräuer & Andreas Hackethal & Tobin Hanspal, 2022. "Consuming Dividends," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4802-4857.
    15. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    16. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-577, June.
    17. Thomas Piketty & Gilles Postel-Vinay & Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, 2006. "Wealth Concentration in a Developing Economy: Paris and France, 1807–1994," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 236-256, March.
    18. Raj Chetty & László Sándor & Adam Szeidl, 2017. "The Effect of Housing on Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1171-1212, June.
    19. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    20. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    21. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    22. Paolo Sodini & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Roine Vestman & Ulf von Lilienfeld-Toal, 2023. "Identifying the Benefits from Homeownership: A Swedish Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3173-3212, December.
    23. Gelderblom, Oscar & Jonker, Joost, 2011. "Public Finance and Economic Growth: The Case of Holland in the Seventeenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 1-39, March.
    24. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    25. Chamley, Christophe, 2011. "Interest Reductions in the Politico-Financial Nexus of Eighteenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 555-589, September.
    26. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Chen, Zefeng & Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Xiaolan, Mindy, 2022. "Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    28. Marco Giacoletti & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Idiosyncratic Risk in Housing Markets [Credit supply and house prices: Evidence from mortgage market segmentation]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3695-3741.
    29. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan & Katherine Eriksson & James Feigenbaum & Santiago Pérez, 2021. "Automated Linking of Historical Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 865-918, September.
    30. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Jacob S Sagi & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Asset-Level Risk and Return in Real Estate Investments [New evidence on home prices from Freddie Mac repeat sales]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3647-3694.
    32. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    33. Christophe Chamley, 2011. "Interest Reductions in the Politico-Financial Nexus of 18th Century England," Post-Print halshs-00754521, HAL.
    34. David Chambers & Christophe Spaenjers & Eva Steiner & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence [Inflation protection from homeownership: Long-run evidence, 1814–2008]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3572-3607.
    35. Andrew F. Haughwout & Donghoon Lee & Joseph Tracy & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2011. "Real estate investors, the leverage cycle, and the housing market crisis," Staff Reports 514, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    36. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    38. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    39. Campbell, John Y. & Sigalov, Roman, 2022. "Portfolio choice with sustainable spending: A model of reaching for yield," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 188-206.
    40. Shefrin, Hersh M. & Statman, Meir, 1984. "Explaining investor preference for cash dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 253-282, June.
    41. Philippe Bracke, 2021. "How Much Do Investors Pay for Houses?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 41-73, March.
    42. Laurent Bach & Laurent E. Calvet & Paolo Sodini, 2020. "Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in Household Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2703-2747, September.
    43. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Geissler & Kyle Mangum & James W Roberts & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5212-5247.
    44. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    45. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    46. Sussman, Nathan & Yafeh, Yishay, 2006. "Institutional Reforms, Financial Development and Sovereign Debt: Britain 1690–1790," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 906-935, December.
    47. Hurd, Michael D, 1987. "Savings of the Elderly and Desired Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 298-312, June.
    48. Clara Martínez Toledano, 2020. "House Price Cycles, Wealth Inequality and Portfolio Reshuffling," PSE Working Papers hal-02876979, HAL.
    49. Marcus T. Allen & Jessica Rutherford & Ronald Rutherford & Abdullah Yavas, 2018. "Impact of Investors in Distressed Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 622-652, May.
    50. Kent Daniel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Kairong Xiao, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Reaching for Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1145-1193, June.
    51. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    52. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2020. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694–2018," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 227-257, July.
    53. Sommer, Kamila & Sullivan, Paul & Verbrugge, Randal, 2013. "The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 854-870.
    54. Christophe Chamley, 2011. "Interest Reductions in the Politico-Financial Nexus of 18th Century England," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754521, HAL.
    55. Piet Eichholtz & Matthijs Korevaar & Thies Lindenthal & Ronan Tallec & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Total Return and Risk to Residential Real Estate [House prices and fundamentals: 355 years of evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3608-3646.
    56. repec:ucp:bkecon:9789052602912 is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Jiang, Hao & Sun, Zheng, 2020. "Reaching for dividends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 321-338.
    58. David Chambers & Christophe Spaenjers & Eva Maria Steiner, 2020. "The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence," Working Papers hal-02896386, HAL.
    59. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5248-5287.
    60. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & van Leeuwen, Bas, 2012. "Persistent but not consistent: The growth of national income in Holland 1347–1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 119-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    2. Daniel I. García, 2022. "Second‐home buying and the housing boom and bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 33-58, March.
    3. Shi, Yining, 2022. "Financial liberalization and house prices: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    5. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    6. Elliot Anenberg & Aurel Hizmo & Edward Kung & Raven Molloy, 2019. "Measuring mortgage credit availability: A frontier estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 865-882, September.
    7. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    8. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Jack Favilukis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Out‐of‐Town Home Buyers and City Welfare," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2577-2638, October.
    10. Zhandos Ybrayev & Yernur Orakbayev & Askar Utarbayev, 2024. "Yield Curves for Main Street: Housing and financial capital returns in a developing economy," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 165-182, January.
    11. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Conklin, James N. & Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher & Liu, Haoyang, 2022. "Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    15. Lingxiao Li & Abdullah Yavas & Bing Zhu, 2023. "Externalities of residential property flipping," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 233-271, January.
    16. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    17. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    19. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2019. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," NBER Working Papers 26457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Schularick, Moritz & Albers, Thilo & Bartels, Charlotte, 2022. "Wealth and its Distribution in Germany, 1895-2018," CEPR Discussion Papers 17269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reaching for yield; Portfolio choice; House prices; Wealth inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:148:y:2023:i:3:p:273-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.