IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v85y2013icp122-143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and CDS markets: An analysis of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Calice, Giovanni
  • Chen, Jing
  • Williams, Julian

Abstract

At the end of 2009, countries in the Eurozone (euro area) began to experience a sudden divergence of bond yields as the market perception of sovereign default risk increased. The theory of complete markets suggests that sovereign debt and credit default swap (CDS) credit spreads should track each other closely. In addition, liquidity risk should be priced into both instruments in such a way that buying exposure to the same default risk is identically priced. We use a time-varying vector autoregression framework to establish the credit and liquidity spread interactions over the 2009–2010 crisis period. We find substantial variation in the patterns of the transmission effect between maturities and across countries. Our major result is that, for several countries, including Greece, Ireland and Portugal the liquidity of the sovereign CDS market has a substantial time varying influence on sovereign bond credit spreads. This evidence is of particular importance in the current policy context.

Suggested Citation

  • Calice, Giovanni & Chen, Jing & Williams, Julian, 2013. "Liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and CDS markets: An analysis of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 122-143.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:85:y:2013:i:c:p:122-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268111002629
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    3. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. L. Arvastson & H. Olsson & J. Holst, 2000. "Asymptotic Bias in Parameter Estimation of AR‐Processes Using Recursive Least Squares with Exponential Forgetting," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(1), pages 177-192, March.
    7. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
    9. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    10. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    2. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    3. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kapadia, Nikunj & Pu, Xiaoling, 2012. "Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 542-564.
    6. Xuanjuan Chen & Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhenzhen Sun & Tong Yao & Tong Yu, 2020. "Liquidity Premium in the Eye of the Beholder: An Analysis of the Clientele Effect in the Corporate Bond Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 932-957, February.
    7. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    8. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.
    10. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Liquidity dimensions in the U.S. corporate bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1163-1179.
    11. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    12. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Nashikkar, Amrut & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2011. "Price dispersion in OTC markets: A new measure of liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 343-357, February.
    13. Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-252.
    14. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2015. "Bank liquidity creation and asset market liquidity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 139-153.
    15. Anténor-Habazac, Cassandre & Dionne, Georges & Guesmi, Sahar, 2018. "Cyclical variations in liquidity risk of corporate bonds," Working Papers 18-3, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    16. Hsu, Feng-Jui & Chen, Sheng-Hung, 2021. "US quantitative easing and firm’s default risk: The role of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 650-664.
    17. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    18. Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theo E. & Simon, Zorka, 2017. "The missing piece of the puzzle: Liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 183, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    20. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Liquidity; Sovereign bonds; Credit spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:85:y:2013:i:c:p:122-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.