IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v212y2023icp482-500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Descriptive Growth Model with Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Pingle, Mark
  • Guerrero, Federico
  • Mahmoudi, Mina
  • Wuthisatian, Rattaphon

Abstract

We modify the standard descriptive growth model to incorporate what Keynes (1936) called the “essence” of his general theory. The essence is that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in employment and unemployment. We implement this idea by assuming the path for the capital growth rate is exogenous, which implicitly indicates that the significant fluctuations in investment do not result from rational calculation but rather result from what Keynes labelled “animal spirits.” Testing the Keynes hypothesis using post-WWII U.S. data, we find that changes in investment Granger-cause changes in unemployment but the reverse is not supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pingle, Mark & Guerrero, Federico & Mahmoudi, Mina & Wuthisatian, Rattaphon, 2023. "A Descriptive Growth Model with Unemployment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 482-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:212:y:2023:i:c:p:482-500
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268123001798
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron, 1997. "Technology, unemployment and efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 525-533, April.
    3. Casares, Miguel & Moreno, Antonio & Vázquez, Jesús, 2014. "An estimated New-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-359.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Postel-Vinay, Fabien, 1998. "Transitional dynamics of the search model with endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1091-1115, May.
    6. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    9. Frédérique Cerisier & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 1998. "Endogenous Growth and the Labor Market," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 49-50, pages 105-126.
    10. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    11. Solow, Robert M, 1988. "Growth Theory and After," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 307-317, June.
    12. Anton B. T. M. Van Schaik & Henri L. F. De Groot, 1998. "Unemployment and Endogenous Growth," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 189-219, July.
    13. Cahuc, Pierre & Michel, Philippe, 1996. "Minimum wage unemployment and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1463-1482, August.
    14. Correani, L. & Di Dio, F. & Patrì, S., 2014. "Optimal choice of fiscal policy instruments in a stochastic IS–LM model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 30-42.
    15. Giovanni Bella & Paolo Mattana & Beatrice Venturi, 2013. "Kaldorian assumptions and endogenous fluctuations: a note on Schinasi’s IS–LM model," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(1), pages 71-81, March.
    16. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 48-104.
    17. Day, Richard H. & Yang, Chengyu, 2009. "From Keynes to Solow to optimal growth: An encompassing model of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 780-795, November.
    18. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:49-50:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hendrik Van den Berg, 2013. "Growth theory after Keynes, part I: the unfortunate suppression of the Harrod-Domar model," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 7(1), November.
    20. Rod O’Donnell & Colin Rogers, 2016. "IYLM: a General Theory–compatible replacement for ISLM," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 349-364.
    21. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    22. Nicholas Rowe, 2016. "Keynesian parables of thrift and hoarding," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 50-55, January.
    23. Peretto, Pietro F., 1998. "Market Power, Growth and Unemployment," Working Papers 98-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    24. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    25. Richard H. Day & Chengyu Yang, 2011. "Economic Growth And The Effects Of Fiscal Policy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 218-234, February.
    26. Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2014. "Mr Keynes, the Classics and the new Keynesians: A suggested formalisation," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 801-838, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Aricó, 2003. "Growth and Unemployment: Towards a Theoretical Integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 419-455, July.
    2. Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2010. "A Schumpeterian Growth Model With Equilibrium Unemployment," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-426, May.
    3. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2005. "Regional Convergence of Income and Labor Productivity in Mexico," Urban/Regional 0512016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alogoskoufis, G.S. & van der Ploeg, F., 1991. "Money and growth revisited," Discussion Paper 1991-9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Delano S Villanueva & Roberto S Mariano & Diwa C Guinigundo & Abbas Mirakhor, 2023. "A Modified Neoclassical Growth Model with Endogenous Labor Participation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Growth Theory and Practice, chapter 3, pages 44-64, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Mina Mahmoudi & Mark Pingle, 2018. "A Growth Model with Unemployment," Papers 1806.04228, arXiv.org.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Thomas M. Steger, 2000. "Productive Consumption and Growth in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 365-375, October.
    10. Burcu ŞENALP, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Economic Freedom: A Literature Survey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(2), pages 301-336, December.
    11. Francisco de Castro Fernández & José Manuel González Mínguez, 2008. "The composition of public finances and long-term growth: a macroeconomic approach," Occasional Papers 0809, Banco de España.
    12. Frédéric Lordon, 1991. "Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Deuxième partie : la redécouverte des rendements croissants]," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 191-243.
    13. Carolina Gómez Cuenca, 2006. "CONVERGENCIA REGIONAL EN COLOMBIA: un enfoque en los Agregados Monetarios y en el Sector Exportador," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 2201, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    14. Martin Zagler, 2009. "Economic growth, structural change, and search unemployment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 63-78, January.
    15. Tung Liu & Kui-Wai Li, 2015. "The Empirics of Economic Growth and Industrialization Using Growth Identity Equation," Working Papers 201501, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2015.
    16. Voosholz, Frauke, 2014. "A survey on modeling economic growth. With special interest on natural resource use," CAWM Discussion Papers 69, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    17. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1997. "The sources of growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 75-114, January.
    18. Mateusz Błaszczyk & Leszek Kwieciński & Magdalena Stawicka & Marek Wróblewski, 2017. "Przedsiębiorstwa w parkach technologicznych a paradygmat gospodarki opartej na wiedzy," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 69-94.
    19. MG. Ladu, 2005. "Total Factor Productivity Growth and Employment: A Simultaneous Equations Model Estimate," Working Paper CRENoS 200506, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    20. Aykut Kibritçioglu, 2002. "On the Smithian origins of "new" trade and growth theories," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    21. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
    22. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth theory; unemployment; essence of Keynes; economic fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:212:y:2023:i:c:p:482-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.