IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v10y2004i5p327-332.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences

Author

Listed:
  • Guzhva, Vitaly S
  • Pagiavlas, Notis

Abstract

The US airlines’ revenue passenger miles series are examined to objectively assess the effect of the September 11th terrorist attack on the performance of the industry controlling for the general economic conditions. A Vector Autoregression model (VAR) with revenue passenger mile and real gross domestic product series is utilized. The estimated effect of the attack supports the federal government's appropriation of $5 billion cash compensation to the airlines. Analysis at the individual air carrier level confirms that not all the US major and regional airlines were affected in the same manner. United, Northwest, US Airways, and Delta account for more than 63% of the aggregate decline in the US airline industry performance. Three air carriers: JetBlue, Aloha and Atlantic Southeast were able to significantly improve their performance immediately following the September 11th attack.

Suggested Citation

  • Guzhva, Vitaly S & Pagiavlas, Notis, 2004. "US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 327-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:10:y:2004:i:5:p:327-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699704000225
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Feng, Cheng-Min & Wang, Rong-Tsu, 2000. "Performance evaluation for airlines including the consideration of financial ratios," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 133-142.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fuellhart, Kurt & Dai, Liang & Grubesic, Tony & Derudder, Ben, 2021. "The U.S. Essential Air Service Program and SARS C0V-2, 2019–2020," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Brown, Richard S. & Kline, William A., 2020. "Exogenous shocks and managerial preparedness: A study of U.S. airlines’ environmental scanning before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Crowley, Meredith A. & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2019. "Policy shocks and stock market returns: Evidence from Chinese solar panels," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-169.
    5. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    6. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    7. Thai-Ha Le & Donghyun Park & Cong-Phu-Khanh Tran & Binh Tran-Nam, 2018. "The Impact of the Hai Yang Shi You 981 Event on Vietnam’s Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3_suppl), pages 344-375, December.
    8. Sangeetha Gunasekar & Rojalin Patri & Badri Narayanan, 2018. "International Tourist Arrival in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(1), pages 12-28, February.
    9. Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh & Ismail, Noor Azina, 2014. "Application of structural equation modelling for estimating airline performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 25-33.
    10. Sander Van Cranenburgh & Caspar Chorus & Bert Van Wee, 2012. "Substantial Changes and Their Impact on Mobility: A Typology and an Overview of the Literature," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 569-597, June.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6794 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    2. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    3. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. M. Hakan Berument & Zulal Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2012. "Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(36), pages 4787-4798, December.
    5. Jin Zhang and David C. Broadstock, 2016. "The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    6. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    7. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    9. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2014. "Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41-64, January.
    10. Webber, A., 1999. "Dynamic and Long Run Responses of Import Prices to the Exchange Rate in the Asia-Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    11. Janine Aron & John N. J. Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2009. "A Stochastic Estimation Framework For Components Of The South African Consumer Price Index," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 282-313, June.
    12. Pandelis Mitsis, 2015. "Effects of Minimum Wages on Total Employment: Evidence from Cyprus," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 318-345, September.
    13. Vincent R. Nijs & Shuba Srinivasan & Koen Pauwels, 2007. "Retail-Price Drivers and Retailer Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 473-487, 07-08.
    14. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "Tests for Random Coefficient Variation in Vector Autoregressive Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 1-35, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Patricia Funk & Peter Kugler, 2003. "Identifying Efficient Crime‐Combating Policies by VAR Models: The Example of Switzerland," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 525-538, October.
    17. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    18. Ansari, Md Gyasuddin & Sensarma, Rudra, 2019. "US monetary policy, oil and gold prices: Which has a greater impact on BRICS stock markets?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 130-151.
    19. N.D. Geomelos & E. Xideas, 2014. "Forecasting spot prices in bulk shipping using multivariate and univariate models," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    20. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:10:y:2004:i:5:p:327-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.