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Post-earnings announcement abnormal return in the Chinese equity market

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  • Truong, Cameron

Abstract

This study examines the profitability of trading on earnings surprises in the post-earnings-announcement period in the Chinese stock market from 1994 to 2009. We find that a post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) anomaly exists in China. When earnings surprise is defined relative to analyst forecasts, a hedge strategy of going long the top quintile of earnings surprise stocks and short the bottom quintile of earnings surprise stocks can generate around 9.5% excess return in 1 year following the earnings announcements. When earnings surprise is defined relative to time-series model forecasts, a hedge strategy of going long the top quintile of earnings surprise stocks and short the bottom quintile of earnings surprise stocks can generate around 9% excess return in 1 year following the earnings announcements. The return from trading on earnings surprise is robust to the inclusion of beta, firm size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, liquidity and transaction cost measures, state ownership, cross-listing and accounting standards. There is evidence that the magnitude of PEAD increases in the level of arbitrage risk and decreases in the level of foreign ownership. We also find that PEAD is strongly related to firms’ future financial performance.

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  • Truong, Cameron, 2011. "Post-earnings announcement abnormal return in the Chinese equity market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 637-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:5:p:637-661
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.04.002
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    Cited by:

    1. XiaoHua Chen & Edna Solomon & Thanos Verousis, 2016. "Asymmetric Post-Announcement Drift to Good and Bad News: Evidence from Voluntary Trading Disclosures in the Chinese Stock Market," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 183-198, July.
    2. Sanjay Sehgal & Asheesh Pandey, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Net Stock Issues and Returns in India," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 38(4), pages 505-515, November.
    3. Huang, Wei, 2016. "The use of management forecasts to dampen analysts' expectations by Chinese listed firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.
    4. Yanxi Li & Siu Kai Choy & Mingzhu Wang, 2022. "The potential built‐in supply effect from margin trading in the Chinese stock market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 835-861, November.
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    6. Li, Zhuo & Wen, Fenghua & Huang, Zhijian James, 2023. "Asymmetric response to earnings news across different sentiment states: The role of cognitive dissonance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Chu, Gang & Dowling, Michael & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Yongjie, 2023. "Information demand density matters: Evidence from the post-earnings announcement drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Harshita & Shveta Singh & Surendra S. Yadav, 2019. "Unique Calendar Effects in the Indian Stock Market: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1_suppl), pages 35-58, April.
    9. Zhang, Sijia & Gregoriou, Andros, 2020. "Post earnings announcement drift, liquidity and zero leverage firms: Evidence from the UK stock market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 13-26.
    10. Fenghua Wen & Yujie Yuan & Wei‐Xing Zhou, 2021. "Cross‐shareholding networks and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 914-948, January.
    11. Huang, Wei & Wright, Brian, 2015. "Analyst earnings forecast under complex corporate ownership in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-84.
    12. Nguyen, Lan Thi Mai & Cheong, Chee Seng & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2021. "Brokerage M&As and the peer effect on analyst forecast accuracy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    14. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    15. Ping‐Wen Sun & Zipeng Wen, 2023. "Stock return predictability of the cumulative abnormal returns around the earnings announcement date: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 58-86, March.
    16. Zhuo Li & Meiyu Tian & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2021. "Relationship between investor sentiment and earnings news in high‐ and low‐sentiment periods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2748-2765, April.
    17. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Liuchuang & Yu, Zhongbo & Zhang, Hao, 2019. "Local versus non-local effects of Chinese media and post-earnings announcement drift," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 82-92.
    18. Neszveda, Gábor & Csillag, Balázs, 2022. "Gyorsjelentés - lassú árfolyam? A gyorsjelentés utáni árfolyamsodródás vizsgálata a magyar részvénypiacon [Post-earnings announcement drift on the Hungarian stock market]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 801-824.
    19. Yan Han & Xin Cui & Gloria Y. Tian & Peipei Wang, 2023. "Bayesian Investor Belief Updating Speed and Market Underreaction to Earnings Announcements," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 33(1), pages 66-85, March.
    20. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    21. Fenghua Wen & Yujie Yuan & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2019. "Cross-shareholding networks and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Papers 1903.01655, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anomalies; Post-earnings announcement drift; Arbitrage risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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