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Market presence, contestability, and the terms-of-trade effects of regional integration

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  • Schiff, Maurice
  • Chang, Won

Abstract

How firms react to a given shock may depend on the degree to which rivals are present and on whether potentially viable entrants to that market exist. The authors try to measure these effects internationally by examining the price behavior of the United States in Brazil's market when MERCOSUR trade liberalization and most-favored-nation (MFN) trade liberalization take place. Using detailed panel data on trade and tariff rates, they find that both the market presence of a preferred supplier and expected entry lessen the U.S. price reaction to MFN trade liberalization and increase the U.S. price reaction to preferential trade liberalization. Argentina's presence in Brazil's market results in a smaller U.S. price response to Brazil's MFN tariff change and in a larger response to a preferential tariff change. More surprisingly, the quantitative effects of market presence and expected entry (contestability) are not significantly different from each other. Contestability plays no significant role when Argentina's is absent from Brazil's market, contestability lessens the U.S. response to changes in the MFN tariff and increases it in response to changes in the preferential tariff. It follows from these results that presence in, as well as threat of entry into, partners'markets implies lower optimal external tariffs and suggests that regional agreements can have pro-competitive effects in the presence of contestability. The authors also examine the hypothesis of"symmetry"between the effect of tariffs and that of exchange rates.
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  • Schiff, Maurice & Chang, Won, 2003. "Market presence, contestability, and the terms-of-trade effects of regional integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 161-175, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:60:y:2003:i:1:p:161-175
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    1. Feenstra, Robert C., 1995. "Estimating the effects of trade policy," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1553-1595, Elsevier.
    2. Winters, L. Alan & Chang, Won, 2000. "Regional integration and import prices: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 363-377, August.
    3. Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
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    5. Baumol, William J, 1982. "Contestable Markets: An Uprising in the Theory of Industry Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 11, pages 199-214, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Howard H. Hines, 1957. "Effectiveness of "Entry" by Already Established Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(1), pages 132-150.
    8. L. Alan Winters, 2015. "Regionalism And The Rest Of The World: The Irrelevance Of The Kemp-Wan Theorem," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 10, pages 191-197, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1995. "Estimating the effects of trade policy," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1553-1595 Elsevier.
    10. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Soloaga, Isidro, 1998. "Endogenous Tariff Formation: The Case of Mercosur," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 297-320, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mattoo, Aaditya & Fink, Carsten, 2004. "Regional Agreements and Trade in Services: Policy Issues," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 742-779.
    3. Céline CARRERE, 2011. "A new measure of tariff preference margins adjusted for import and domestic competition," Working Papers P19, FERDI.
    4. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Zhang, Lin & Cui, Lin & Li, Sali & Lu, Jiangyong, 2018. "Who rides the tide of regionalization: Examining the effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the exports of Chinese firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 501-513.
    6. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.

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