IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v58y2023ipas1544612323007237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Euro area uncertainty and Euro exchange rate volatility: Exploring the role of transnational economic policy

Author

Listed:
  • Pastorek, Daniel

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and Euro area exchange rate volatility, focusing on transnational Euro area uncertainty. The study introduces a novel index that captures uncertainty related to Euro area integration. The index is constructed using both traditional and advanced textual analysis methods. By employing a quantile regression framework, findings show that Euro area uncertainty significantly impacts the euro exchange rate's volatility, while national economic policy uncertainty is generally insignificant. The study emphasizes the importance of considering both national and supranational uncertainties when analysing exchange rate volatility, contributing to the existing literature on this subject.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastorek, Daniel, 2023. "Euro area uncertainty and Euro exchange rate volatility: Exploring the role of transnational economic policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323007237
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323007237
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104351?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    3. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2018. "The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 705-719, November.
    7. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    8. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    9. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    10. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Andrés Azqueta-Gavaldón & Marina Diakonova & Corinna Ghirelli & Javier J. Pérez, 2023. "Sources of economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: a ready-to-use database," Occasional Papers 2315, Banco de España.
    12. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
    13. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2023. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Syed Ali Raza & Sahar Afshan, 2017. "Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 825-848, August.
    15. Nilavongse, Rachatar & Rubaszek, Michał, & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    16. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Omer Faruk Derindag & Nuri Hacievliyagil & Mehmet Canakci, 2022. "Exchange rate response to economic policy uncertainty: evidence beyond asymmetry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2021. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 403-425, September.
    2. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2020. "On the Exchange Rate and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8189, CESifo.
    3. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    4. Abir ABID & Christophe RAULT, 2020. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2816, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
    6. Lee A. Smales, 2022. "The influence of policy uncertainty on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 997-1016, August.
    7. Riadh El Abed & Zouheir Mighri & Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2022. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Exchange Rate in China and Japan? Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Adjustment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 28-36.
    8. Anna A. Gainetdinova, 2023. "Asymmetric Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Russian Ruble Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(2), pages 270-293.
    9. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi & Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun & Francis Olayinka Adeyemi, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 135-166.
    10. Terver T. Kumeka & Olabusuyi R. Falayi & Adeniyi J. Adedokun & Francis O. Adeyemi, 2022. "An econometric analysis of economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure of the three largest economies in West Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-33, November.
    11. Long, Shaobo & Zhang, Rui & Hao, Jing, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of Sino-US interest rate differentials and economic policy uncertainty ratio on RMB exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Zhou, Zhongbao & Fu, Zhangyan & Jiang, Yong & Zeng, Ximei & Lin, Ling, 2020. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict exchange rate volatility? New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    14. Chen, Liming & Du, Ziqing & Hu, Zhihao, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    15. Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Dong, Dayong & Li, Pan, 2022. "Category-specific EPU indices, macroeconomic variables and stock market return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Adedokun Adeniyi J. & Falayi Olabusuyi R. & Adeyemi Francis O. & Kumeka Terver T., 2022. "Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Management in Africa: A Panel Study," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, September.
    18. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    19. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2018. "The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 705-719, November.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Exchange rate; Euro area; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323007237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.