IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v51y2023ics1544612322006171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions

Author

Listed:
  • Bossman, Ahmed
  • Gubareva, Mariya
  • Teplova, Tamara

Abstract

In a nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression analysis, we study the asymmetric effects of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk (GPR) on the seven major currencies in terms of the USD-denominated exchange rates. We find that GPR's impact on exchange rates is asymmetric, especially at low and high extremes, currency-specific, and depends on whether the country's legal system is predominantly based on common law or otherwise. Our findings signal the attractiveness of the Euro and the Swiss Franc currencies as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The investment and policy implications of the findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:51:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322006171
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    3. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    4. Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz & Zaghum Umar & Mariya Gubareva & Tatiana Sokolova & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "ASEAN-5 forex rates and crude oil: Markov regime-switching analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(54), pages 6234-6253, November.
    5. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    6. Rubbaniy, Ghulame & Tee, Kienpin & Iren, Perihan & Abdennadher, Sonia, 2022. "Investors’ mood and herd investing: A quantile-on-quantile regression explanation from crypto market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    7. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Demir, Ender & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Hedging Geopolitical Risks with Different Asset Classes: A Focus on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Md. Kausar Alam & Mosab I. Tabash & Mabruk Billah & Sanjeev Kumar & Suhaib Anagreh, 2022. "The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Modelling the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 on REIT returns: A quantile-on-quantile regression analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
    15. Chortane, Sana Gaied & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Does the Russia-Ukraine war lead to currency asymmetries? A US dollar tale," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    16. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    17. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Zhu, Meng Nan, 2022. "Examining the behaviour of energy prices to COVID-19 uncertainty: A quantile on quantile approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    18. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Time and frequency domain quantile coherence of emerging stock markets with gold and oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    19. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Jinlin & Wen, Baoyu & Jiang, Yaohui & Wang, Xiaohan & Shen, Yue, 2023. "Risk spillovers across geopolitical risk and global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    2. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Yang, Junhua & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Energy, metals, market uncertainties, and ESG stocks: Analysing predictability and safe havens," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    4. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    5. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    6. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "The impact of the US yield curve on sub-Saharan African equities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Connectedness between DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Pham, Linh & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Energy transition metals and global sentiment: Evidence from extreme quantiles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    10. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Hanif, Waqas & Andraz, Jorge Miguel & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Are REITS hedge or safe haven against oil price fall?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1-16.
    13. Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "Extreme return and volatility connectedness among real estate tokens, REITs, and other assets: The role of global factors and portfolio implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adeabah, David & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of Russia–Ukraine war sentiment on blockchain and FinTech stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Yang, Junhua & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Energy, metals, market uncertainties, and ESG stocks: Analysing predictability and safe havens," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    3. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "The relationship between global risk aversion and returns from safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Alshater, Muneer M. & Bouri, Elie & Li, Yanshuang, 2023. "Multidimensional connectedness among the volatility of global financial markets around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Khurshid, Adnan & Khan, Khalid & Rauf, Abdur & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Effect of geopolitical risk on resources prices in the global and Russian-Ukrainian context: A novel Bayesian structural model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.
    14. Pang, Lidong & Zhu, Meng Nan & Yu, Haiyan, 2022. "Is green finance really a blessing for green technology and carbon efficiency?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    15. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Are short stocks susceptible to geopolitical shocks? Time-Frequency evidence from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    19. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Qureshi, Fiza & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between gold and Islamic stocks in bearish, normal and bullish market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Foreign exchange rates; Quantile causality-in-means; Quantile regression model; Quantile-on-quantile regression; Russia; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:51:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.