We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report that the contribution of real-time macroeconomic data to ex ante stock return predictability is similar to that of revised macroeconomic data. Moreover, the performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been similar to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.