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Forecast and structural characteristics of China's oil product consumption embedded in bottom-line thinking

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  • Zhang, Xiaokong
  • Chai, Jian
  • Tian, Lingyue
  • Yang, Ying
  • Zhang, Zhe George
  • Pan, Yue

Abstract

How to judge the bottom line of China's oil product consumption is of great significance for energy security. We innovatively divide oil product consumption into bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption and use the DMA method for forecasting. The results show that bottom-line consumption of oil products will reach 197.29–213.47 Mt in 2025 under the low development scenario, while it will increase to 236.21–250.37 Mt and 269.62–285.8 Mt in the baseline and high development scenarios, respectively. By reducing the high development scenario to the low development scenario, non-bottom-line consumption of oil products can save about 22.09–25.32 Mt. The wide variation in the forecast results under the multi-dimensional scenarios reflects the flexibility and feasibility of future policy combinations to regulate oil consumption. Meanwhile, for any oil product, any combination of policy scenarios will control bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption in the same direction but with different impact effects. Gasoline, kerosene, and diesel will account for a lower limit of about 44%, 14%, and 27%, respectively, in 2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Xiaokong & Chai, Jian & Tian, Lingyue & Yang, Ying & Zhang, Zhe George & Pan, Yue, 2023. "Forecast and structural characteristics of China's oil product consumption embedded in bottom-line thinking," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:278:y:2023:i:pa:s0360544223012835
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127889
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