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Electrification of residential space heating considering coincidental weather events and building thermal inertia: A system-wide planning analysis

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  • Heinen, Steve
  • Turner, William
  • Cradden, Lucy
  • McDermott, Frank
  • O'Malley, Mark

Abstract

The increasing deployment of variable renewables and parallel residential space heat electrification using heat pumps poses two significant challenges for electricity systems: First, coincidence of certain weather events can stress the power system due to the increasing weather-dependence on both supply and demand side; Secondly, increased net load demand requires large capacity expansion unless heat and electricity can be partially decoupled. This paper proposes a planning methodology to explore these challenges by integrating a ‘Resistance-Capacitance’ representation of building thermodynamics into an integrated planning model. This enables analysis of coincidental weather effects which drive system adequacy and of the potential to utilise building thermal inertia to pre-heat the building and effectively store electricity in the form of heat according to system conditions. The model was tested with a case study for the Irish energy system in 2030. It was found that different weather patterns considerably influence investment and planning choices. Also, coincidental effects of different weather variables – in this case, low temperatures and low wind speed - define the most critical situations in terms of adequacy. By utilising building thermal inertia, total system costs of residential heat electrification can be reduced to the level of the benchmark technology, gas boilers.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinen, Steve & Turner, William & Cradden, Lucy & McDermott, Frank & O'Malley, Mark, 2017. "Electrification of residential space heating considering coincidental weather events and building thermal inertia: A system-wide planning analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 136-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:127:y:2017:i:c:p:136-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.102
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    Cited by:

    1. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    2. Charitopoulos, V. & Fajardy, M. & Chyong, C. K. & Reiner, D., 2022. "The case of 100% electrification of domestic heat in Great Britain," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2210, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Wang, Qi & Miao, Cairan & Tang, Yi, 2022. "Power shortage support strategies considering unified gas-thermal inertia in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    4. Romero Rodríguez, Laura & Sánchez Ramos, José & Álvarez Domínguez, Servando & Eicker, Ursula, 2018. "Contributions of heat pumps to demand response: A case study of a plus-energy dwelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 191-204.
    5. Thomaßen, Georg & Kavvadias, Konstantinos & Jiménez Navarro, Juan Pablo, 2021. "The decarbonisation of the EU heating sector through electrification: A parametric analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    6. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S04/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    7. Fernando Martins & Pedro Moura & Aníbal T. de Almeida, 2022. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of the Energy Sector in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-35, February.
    8. Eggimann, Sven & Usher, Will & Eyre, Nick & Hall, Jim W., 2020. "How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Dominković, D.F. & Gianniou, P. & Münster, M. & Heller, A. & Rode, C., 2018. "Utilizing thermal building mass for storage in district heating systems: Combined building level simulations and system level optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 949-966.
    10. Lee, Zachary E. & Max Zhang, K., 2022. "Unintended consequences of smart thermostats in the transition to electrified heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
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    12. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    13. Lombardi, Francesco & Rocco, Matteo Vincenzo & Belussi, Lorenzo & Danza, Ludovico & Magni, Chiara & Colombo, Emanuela, 2022. "Weather-induced variability of country-scale space heating demand under different refurbishment scenarios for residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    14. Thomaßen, Georg & Redl, Christian & Bruckner, Thomas, 2022. "Will the energy-only market collapse? On market dynamics in low-carbon electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    15. Wang, Haichao & Hua, Pengmin & Wu, Xiaozhou & Zhang, Ruoyu & Granlund, Katja & Li, Ji & Zhu, Yingjie & Lahdelma, Risto & Teppo, Esa & Yu, Li, 2022. "Heat-power decoupling and energy saving of the CHP unit with heat pump based waste heat recovery system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    16. Göke, Leonard & Weibezahn, Jens & Kendziorski, Mario, 2023. "How flexible electrification can integrate fluctuating renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    17. Mascherbauer, Philipp & Kranzl, Lukas & Yu, Songmin & Haupt, Thomas, 2022. "Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    18. Lizana, Jesus & Halloran, Claire E. & Wheeler, Scot & Amghar, Nabil & Renaldi, Renaldi & Killendahl, Markus & Perez-Maqueda, Luis A. & McCulloch, Malcolm & Chacartegui, Ricardo, 2023. "A national data-based energy modelling to identify optimal heat storage capacity to support heating electrification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    19. Zeyen, Elisabeth & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Brown, Tom, 2021. "Mitigating heat demand peaks in buildings in a highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    20. Miao, Cairan & Wang, Qi & Tang, Yi, 2023. "A gas-thermal inertia-based frequency response strategy considering the suppression of a second frequency dip in an integrated energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    21. Gabrielli, Paolo & Poluzzi, Alessandro & Kramer, Gert Jan & Spiers, Christopher & Mazzotti, Marco & Gazzani, Matteo, 2020. "Seasonal energy storage for zero-emissions multi-energy systems via underground hydrogen storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    22. Besagni, Giorgio & Borgarello, Marco & Premoli Vilà, Lidia & Najafi, Behzad & Rinaldi, Fabio, 2020. "MOIRAE – bottom-up MOdel to compute the energy consumption of the Italian REsidential sector: Model design, validation and evaluation of electrification pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    23. Dominković, Dominik Franjo & Junker, Rune Grønborg & Lindberg, Karen Byskov & Madsen, Henrik, 2020. "Implementing flexibility into energy planning models: Soft-linking of a high-level energy planning model and a short-term operational model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

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