The role of household energy consumption behavior in environmental policy outcomes —the case of driving restriction policy in zhengzhou

The evaluation of the environmental effects of the driving restriction policy often sparks widespread discussions in the literature due to its complex and controversial assessment methods. Fewer studies have delved into the exploration of household energy consumption behavior, the role played by the targeted subjects of policy implementation, and the policy's impact on climate change. This paper focuses on the case of Zhengzhou, a city in China, to thoroughly discuss the formulation process of the driving restriction policy. By utilizing publicly available statistical data and conducting surveys among 795 households, this research employs statistical methods such as regression discontinuity, difference-in-differences estimation, and improved causal stepwise regression to quantitatively estimate the environmental consequences of the driving restriction policy. It also examines the impact of changes in residents' consumption behavior on policy effects and climate change under this policy shock. The study aims at bridging the gap between environmental policy effects, individual behavior changes, and climate change research. Our findings indicate that the driving restriction policy is effective in the short term, significantly improving air quality. However, due to the stickiness of residents' household consumption behavior and the adaptive adjustments in long-term travel behavior, the pollution-reducing effects of the policy gradually weaken and even exacerbate air pollution, resulting in an additional increase of approximately 147,950 tons of carbon dioxide emissions after the policy had been implemented for nine months. Therefore, this paper further suggests that implementing environmental policies requires close coordination with adjustments in household energy consumption behavior.