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Confidence and consistency in discrimination: A new family of evaluation metrics for potential distribution models

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  • Somodi, Imelda
  • Bede-Fazekas, Ákos
  • Botta-Dukát, Zoltán
  • Molnár, Zsolt

Abstract

Potential distribution models (PDMs) are widely applied to understand and predict biogeographic patterns. PDM evaluation, however, presents major challenges, including (1) matches of predictions with observed absences and presences being treated similarly and (2) treatment of predicted presences falling outside the observations as errors, while a major motivation of PDMs is to identify such locations. Our aim was to construct a family of model performance metrics to measure the reliability and transferability of PDMs while providing solutions to the problems mentioned above.

Suggested Citation

  • Somodi, Imelda & Bede-Fazekas, Ákos & Botta-Dukát, Zoltán & Molnár, Zsolt, 2024. "Confidence and consistency in discrimination: A new family of evaluation metrics for potential distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:491:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024000553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110667
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