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Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment

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  • Berlemann, Michael

Abstract

When no appropriate markets to derive expectations on economic variables are available surveying methods are often employed. However, surveys suffer from the problem of how to aggregate individual expectations in a reasonable manner. We show at the example of a market on the ECB's main refinancing rate that experimental markets aggregate information quite efficiently and thus are a useful tool in this respect.

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  • Berlemann, Michael, 2008. "Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 379-383, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:2:p:379-383
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