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Individual inflation forecasts and monetary policy announcements

Author

Listed:
  • de Haan, Jakob
  • Mavromatis, Kostas
  • Tan, Garyn

Abstract

Using a decomposition of US monetary policy shocks and inflation forecasts from Consensus Economics, we find that information and monetary policy shocks move inflation expectations in opposite directions. Better performing forecasters appear less reliant on the informational content of announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • de Haan, Jakob & Mavromatis, Kostas & Tan, Garyn, 2020. "Individual inflation forecasts and monetary policy announcements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520303621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109602
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Laura Pagenhardt, 2023. "Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations," Working Papers No 04/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation forecasts; Consensus forecasts; Monetary policy shocks; Information shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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