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Half-lives of currencies and aggregation bias

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  • Kunkler, Michael
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

We revisit the exchange rate half-life issue and demonstrate that observed half-lives can be reduced significantly by modelling (relative) currency rates, rather than exchange rates. We show that the average observed half-life for relative currency rates, around a measure of central tendency, is about 1.55 years and this drops to 1.30 years when the US dollar is excluded. We also show that a standard exchange rate model exhibits aggregation bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunkler, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Half-lives of currencies and aggregation bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 58-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:135:y:2015:i:c:p:58-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.07.030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engel, Charles & Hendrickson, Michael K. & Rogers, John H., 1997. "Intranational, Intracontinental, and Intraplanetary PPP," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 480-501, December.
    2. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    4. Mahieu, Ronald & Schotman, Peter, 1994. "Neglected common factors in exchange rate volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 279-311, July.
    5. Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G, 1990. "Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 137-150, Supplemen.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kunkler, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald, 2016. "Idiosyncratic variation of the US Dollar," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 7-9.
    2. Kunkler, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald, 2018. "Decomposition of the uncovered equity parity correlation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 44-58.
    3. Kunkler, Michael, 2022. "Hedging local currency risk with precious metals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Kunkler, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald, 2019. "The multilateral relationship between oil and G10 currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 444-453.
    5. Kunkler, Michael, 2021. "Currency hedging for single-currency equity portfolios: Does cross-asset risk matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Kunkler, Michael, 2021. "The Chinese renminbi's co-movement with the US dollar: Addressing the numéraire issue," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    7. Kunkler, Michael, 2022. "Using the Special Drawing Right in the Frankel-Wei regression framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    8. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Hai Long Vo, 2023. "The Law of One Food Price," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 195-216, February.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2021. "Causal and frequency analyses of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Kunkler, Michael, 2023. "A stable aggregate currency revisited: Highlighting some fundamental issues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Kunkler, Michael, 2023. "Multilateral exchange rates: A multivariate regression framework," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Half-lives; Exchange rates; Aggregation bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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