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RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk

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  • Mezei, József
  • Sarlin, Peter

Abstract

Given the consequences of the recent financial crisis, there is an increased interest in modelling and predicting the behaviour of complex financial systems. As a novel approach to measuring risk in networks, this paper proposes RiskRank as a general-purpose aggregation operator of risk in nodes and links. RiskRank relies on a system represented as a hierarchical network, where node values and linkages represent individual risk levels and interconnectedness, respectively. The measure is used to aggregate risk in the vein of a novel network centrality measure, allowing for the integration of the interrelations of different entities in the network with any other measure of node risk. The use of RiskRank is illustrated through a real-world case on systemic risk in Europe, in which we show that it improves performance in out-of-sample analysis. We provide an estimation of systemic risk from country-level risk indicators and combine it with cross-border linkages to illustrate the practical benefit of the proposed approach. From a policy perspective, our results strengthen the results of previous research and underline the importance of integrating a network perspective in macro-prudential analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mezei, József & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 41-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:41-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.04.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin Ellis, 2020. "Are Corporate Bond Defaults Contagious across Sectors?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2018. "CoRisk: Credit Risk Contagion with Correlation Network Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Agosto, Arianna & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo, 2020. "Tree networks to assess financial contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 349-366.
    4. Wang, Ze & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Sun, Qingru & Chen, Zhihua & Tang, Renwu & Di, Zengru, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk contribution of global stock markets: A dynamic tail risk network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Linhai Zhao & Yingjie Li & Yenchun Jim Wu, 2022. "An Identification Algorithm of Systemically Important Financial Institutions Based on Adjacency Information Entropy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1735-1753, April.
    6. Soumyatanu Mukherjee & Sidhartha S. Padhi, 2022. "Sourcing decision under interconnected risks: an application of mean–variance preferences approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1243-1268, June.
    7. Mirza, Harun & Moccero, Diego & Palligkinis, Spyros & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2020. "Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: What is their asset price impact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 430-444.
    8. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Wang, Dan, 2018. "A return spillover network perspective analysis of Chinese financial institutions’ systemic importance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 405-421.
    9. Cheng, Xian & Zhao, Haichuan, 2019. "Modeling, analysis and mitigation of contagion in financial systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 281-292.
    10. Guo, Hongfeng & Zhao, Xinyao & Yu, Hang & Zhang, Xin, 2021. "Analysis of global stock markets’ connections with emphasis on the impact of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    11. Wang, Dan & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2021. "Centrality-based measures of financial institutions’ systemic importance: A tail dependence network view," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Aggregation operators; Network analysis; Interconnected risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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