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Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Halicioglu, Ferda
  • Hegerty, Scott W.

Abstract

Recent advances in time-series and cointegration analysis have allowed for the estimation of the nonlinear effects of currency depreciations on countries’ trade balances. This study examines Mexico’s bilateral trade with 13 trade partners, applying both the linear and the nonlinear versions of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration and error-correction methodologies, to test whether peso appreciations affect trade differently than do peso depreciations. The linear ARDL model generates significant long-run coefficients for six partners, implying that while peso depreciations improve Mexico’s trade balance with them, peso appreciation hurt it. However, the nonlinear ARDL model finds that peso appreciation hurts Mexico’s trade balance with three additional partners, and that peso depreciation improves it with one additional partner. Additional statistical tests reveal that indeed the effects of peso appreciation are significantly different than effects of peso depreciation, supporting the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda & Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:50:y:2016:i:c:p:23-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2016.02.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. M. Ege Yazgan & Serda Selin Ozturk, 2019. "Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Trade: Does the J-curve Effect Really Hold?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 343-373, April.
    4. Manoranjan Sahoo, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Service Exports from India: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1090-1101.
    5. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach And Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 472-483, July.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 97-112, May.
    8. Camara Kwasi Obeng, 2018. "Is the effect of exchange rate volatility on export diversification symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1460027-146, January.
    9. Serdan Ongar & Dilek Ozdemir & Cem Isik, 2018. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis for the USA: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 16(1), pages 21-34.
    10. Elias A. Udeaja & Nathan Audu, 2023. "Asymmetric Effect of External Debt and Foreign Capital Flows on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Nigeria," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 9(3), pages 345-368, July.
    11. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Gelan, Abera, 2018. "Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance: Evidence from 12 African countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-21.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Malaysia–Korea Commodity Trade: Are there Asymmetric Responses to Exchange Rate Changes?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 198-222, June.
    14. Ferda Halıcıoğlu & Kasım Eren, 2017. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 3(1), pages 35-46.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2018. "The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 350-389, September.
    16. Umer Shahzad & Xiaoyin He & Said Muhammad, 2023. "How Terms of Trade Impact Economic Growth: The Case of the United States," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Harvey Hanafiah, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Panagodage Janaka Sampath Fernando & Hasthimuni Nadeeka De Silva & Athula Naranpanawa & Chandika Gunasinghe, 2017. "Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201706, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    19. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2021. "Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    21. Serdar Ongan & Huseyin Karamelikli & Mine Aysen Doyran & Ismet Gocer & Charles A. Rarick & John Mellon, 2023. "The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 171-186, December.
    22. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-curve non-linear ARDL approach; Asymmetric effects; Bilateral trade balance; Mexico;
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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