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Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system

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Author Info
Cogley, Timothy
Morozov, Sergei
Sargent, Thomas J.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1893-1925
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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:11:p:1893-1925

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
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  3. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
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  4. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Aguilar, Omar & West, Mike, 2000. "Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 338-57, July.
  9. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers 09-17, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cogley, Timothy W. & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 05-23, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  5. Kateřina Šmídková, 2005. "How Inflation Targeters (Can) Deal with Uncertainty," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(7-8), pages 316-332, July. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luca Benati, . "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002815, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Luca Benati, . "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," ECARES Working Papers 2009_020, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model - an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 389, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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