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A revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching model

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  • Ge, Shuyi

Abstract

This paper proposes a new mutual exciting regime-switching model where crises can spread contagiously across countries. Each country has its own hidden stochastic process that determines whether it is in a normal or crisis regime. The mutual-excitation component allows interactions in the Markov chains, and a crisis in one country could increase the likelihood of a crisis in another country. Using this new approach, I revisit the sovereign risk contagion in the euro area. I find striking shifts in market pricing functions for the sovereign bond spreads. Multi-country contagion plays a dominant role in driving such shifts, while common risk factors and country-specific fundamentals are less important.

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  • Ge, Shuyi, 2023. "A revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s0165188922002688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104565
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Inter-dependence; Regime-switching; Mutual excitation; Sovereign credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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