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The macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: A SIR-DSGE model approach

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  • Chan, Ying Tung

Abstract

This paper proposes a susceptible-infected-removed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SIR-DSGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the recent COVID-19 outbreak. The parameters of the SIR setting are calibrated to COVID-19 data from China. Using the model, we illustrate how the pandemic could result in consumption and output loss. We show that a combination of quarantine policy and random testing of the uninfected is effective in reducing the number of infected individuals and outperforms the alternative scenarios in which only one of the policies is implemented. Moreover, the economic impacts of both policies are evaluated. Compared with the decentralized equilibrium, we find that the Ramsey social planner allows output to decrease more substantially during the pandemic, in exchange for a faster economic recovery.

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  • Chan, Ying Tung, 2022. "The macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: A SIR-DSGE model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s1043951x21001437
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101725
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    Cited by:

    1. António Manuel Portugal & Fatima Sol, 2022. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Some European Union Countries: A Counterfactual Analysis," CeBER Working Papers 2022-05, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    2. Yugang He, 2023. "Unraveling the COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on South Korea’s Macroeconomy: Unearthing Novel Transmission Channels within the Energy Sector and Production Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-10, April.
    3. Firmansyah Firmansyah & Andrian Budi Prasetyo & Shanty Oktavilia & Siti Hilmiati Azyzia & Dita Wahyu Puspita & Albi Boykhair & Fadel Nugraha, 2023. "Economic Recovery Strategy of Sectoral Industries Post-COVID-19: Input–Output Model Simulations," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Lorena Skufi & Adam Geršl, 2023. "Using Macrofinancial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(5), pages 517-553, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; SIR model; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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