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Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis

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  • Robinson, Sherman
  • El-Said, Moataz
  • San, Nu Nu

Abstract

This paper presents an agriculture-focused computable general equilibrium model that can be used to analyze the economy-wide impacts of changes in technology, market structure, and the foreign exchange rate on resource allocation, production, and trade in Indonesia. The model includes a specification of the rice market and the government price-support, stocking, and trade policies for rice. Using a mixed complementarity approach, the model incorporates inequalities and changes in policy regime as prices and/or stocks move within specified bands. The model is used to examine the impact on the Indonesian economy of changes in rice yield and exchange rates given different assumptions about the operations of BULOG (National Logistic Agency). An important result is that there is inefficient allocation of resources within agriculture and the rest of the economy if BULOG operates to maintain the rice price when there are significant increases in rice productivity or changes in the exchange rate. With increased productivity in rice, the price support scheme retains resources in rice production that would be better used in other, high value, agriculture. With devaluation, maintaining a low rice price discriminates against rice producers and hence slows the process of structural adjustment. In addition, the price support program is costly and strains the government accounts, even if the administrative costs of operating the program are ignored.
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  • Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu, 1998. "Rice policy, trade, and exchange rate changes in Indonesia: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 393-423.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:393-423
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    1. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    2. Lofgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 1997. "The mixed-complementary approach to specifying agricultural supply in computable general equilibrium models:," TMD discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Timmer, C. Peter, 1989. "Food price policy : The rationale for government intervention," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-27, February.
    4. Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz & San, Nu Nu & Suryana, Achmad & Swastika, Dewa & Bahri, Sjaiful, 1997. "Rice price policies in Indonesia: a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis," TMD discussion papers 19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Robinson, Sherman & Roland-Holst, David W., 1988. "Macroeconomic structure and computable general equilibrium models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 353-375.
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    1. San, Nu Nu & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1998. "Indonesian agriculture in transition: Projections of alternative futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 445-465.
    2. Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz, 2000. "GAMS code for estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) using cross entropy methods (CE)," TMD discussion papers 64, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "General equilibrium measures of agricultural policy bias in fifteen developing countries," TMD discussion papers 105, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Nasrudin, Rus'an, 2007. "Measuring Welfare Changes from Commodity Price Stabilization: Case Study of Import Tariff in Indonesia’s Rice Market in 2001-2005," MPRA Paper 80415, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    5. Permani Risti, 2011. "The Impacts of Trade Liberalisation and Technological Change on GDP Growth in Indonesia: A Meta Regression Analysis," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Morley, Samuel A., 2001. "What has happened to growth in Latin America," TMD discussion papers 67, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Colby, Hunter & Diao, Xinshen & Tuan, Francis C., 2001. "China's WTO Accession: Conflicts with Domestic Agricultural Policies and Institutions," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14.
    8. Arndt, Channing & Dorosh, Paul A. & Fontana, Marzia & Zohir, Sajjad & El-Said, Moataz & Lungren, Christen, 2002. "Opportunities and challenges in agriculture and garments: A general equilibrium analysis of the Bangladesh economy," TMD discussion papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Sirikul Tulasombat & Somchai Ratanakomut, 2015. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Agricultural Goods for Export: A Case of Thailand," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11.
    10. Wobst, Peter, 2000. "Why the poor care about partial versus general equilibrium effects - Part I," TMD discussion papers 60, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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