IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v361y2024ics030626192400268x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises

Author

Listed:
  • Hoffart, Franziska M.
  • D'Orazio, Paola
  • Holz, Franziska
  • Kemfert, Claudia

Abstract

Navigating the transition toward a zero-emission and just future amidst multiple crises requires a nuanced understanding of potential hindrances to investments and energy transitions. As current approaches hardly consider the big picture of interacting crises, this study offers a framework to analyze the dynamics and risk channels between 1) the climate crisis, 2) financial (in)stability, 3) the geopolitical energy crisis, and 4) the energy transitions. Our framework reveals that the dynamics depends on the specific emergency policy. Hence, we apply the framework to a German Case study. Our findings reveal that fossil energy security policies and insufficient macroprudential policies can threaten the energy transition and financial stability exacerbating negative feedback loops. The discussion highlights that short-term emergency policies outweighing long-term climate goals fail to secure financial stability, reduce transition risks, or accelerate the energy transition. In conclusion, crises can catalyse the transition if short-term emergency policies are harmonized with long-term climate goals advocating for a coherent policy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffart, Franziska M. & D'Orazio, Paola & Holz, Franziska & Kemfert, Claudia, 2024. "Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:361:y:2024:i:c:s030626192400268x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122885
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192400268X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122885?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chenet, Hugues & Ryan-Collins, Josh & van Lerven, Frank, 2021. "Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2023. "Do monetary policy mandates and financial stability governance structures matter for the adoption of climate-related financial policies?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 284-295.
    3. Shen, Lihua & Hong, Yanran, 2023. "Can geopolitical risks excite Germany economic policy uncertainty: Rethinking in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Halbrügge, Stephanie & Schott, Paul & Weibelzahl, Martin & Buhl, Hans Ulrich & Fridgen, Gilbert & Schöpf, Michael, 2021. "How did the German and other European electricity systems react to the COVID-19 pandemic?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    5. J.-F. Mercure & P. Salas & P. Vercoulen & G. Semieniuk & A. Lam & H. Pollitt & P. B. Holden & N. Vakilifard & U. Chewpreecha & N. R. Edwards & J. E. Vinuales, 2021. "Reframing incentives for climate policy action," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1133-1143, December.
    6. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Climate Change and the Financial System," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-320, October.
    8. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    9. Juana Castro & Stefan Drews & Filippos Exadaktylos & Joël Foramitti & Franziska Klein & Théo Konc & Ivan Savin & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2020. "A review of agent‐based modeling of climate‐energy policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    10. Stephen Hall & Timothy J Foxon & Ronan Bolton, 2017. "Investing in low-carbon transitions: energy finance as an adaptive market," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 280-298, April.
    11. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    12. Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Țăran, Alexandra-Mădălina, 2023. "Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    14. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 130, pages 1-1.
    15. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - A quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26, pages 1-15.
    17. Vermeulen, Robert & Schets, Edo & Lohuis, Melanie & Kölbl, Barbara & Jansen, David-Jan & Heeringa, Willem, 2021. "The heat is on: A framework for measuring financial stress under disruptive energy transition scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    18. Rogge, Karoline S. & Pfluger, Benjamin & Geels, Frank W., 2020. "Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: The case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010–2050)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2019. "Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 58, pages 1-23.
    20. Tian, Jinfang & Yu, Longguang & Xue, Rui & Zhuang, Shan & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    21. Claudia Kemfert & Dorothea Schäfer & Willi Semmler, 2020. "Great Green Transition and Finance," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 181-186, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D'Orazio, Paola, 2022. "Mapping the emergence and diffusion of climate-related financial policies: Evidence from a cluster analysis on G20 countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 135-147.
    2. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Helena Redondo & Elisa Aracil, 2024. "Climate‐related credit risk: Rethinking the credit risk framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S1), pages 21-33, March.
    4. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    5. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Hoffart, Franziska, 2022. "What is a feasible and 1.5°C-aligned hydrogen infrastructure for Germany? A multi-criteria economic study based on socio-technical energy scenarios," Ruhr Economic Papers 979, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    8. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Dawud Ansari & Regine Schönenberg & Melissa Abud & Laura Becerra & Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert & Nigel Dudley & Michael Dunlop & Carolina Figueroa & Oscar Guevara & Philipp Hauser & Hannes Hobbie, 2021. "Communications on Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss with Local Populations: Exploring Best-practices and Postcolonial Moments in Eight Case Studies from across the Globe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1945, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    11. Toma, Pierluigi & Stefanelli, Valeria, 2022. "What are the banks doing in managing climate risk? Empirical evidence from a position map," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Gutiérrez-López, Cristina & Castro, Paula & Tascón, María T., 2022. "How can firms' transition to a low-carbon economy affect the distance to default?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    14. Paola D’Orazio & Lilit Popoyan, 2022. "Realising Central Banks’ Climate Ambitions Through Financial Stability Mandates," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 103-111, March.
    15. Mengting Fan & Zan Mo & Huijian Fu & Tsung-Hsien Wu & Zili Chen & Yue He, 2024. "Does climate policy uncertainty matter for bank value?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-28, April.
    16. Wu, Xin & Bai, Xiao & Qi, Hanying & Lu, Lanxin & Yang, Mingyuan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "The impact of climate change on banking systemic risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 419-437.
    17. Tao, Hu & Zhuang, Shan & Xue, Rui & Cao, Wei & Tian, Jinfang & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Environmental Finance: An Interdisciplinary Review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    18. Baer, Moritz & Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme, 2021. "It takes two to dance: Institutional dynamics and climate-related financial policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    19. Chan, Ying Tung & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy responses to carbon and green bubbles:A two-sector DSGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2023. "Electricity Market Crisis in Europe and Cross Border Price Effects: A Quantile Return Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 8-2023, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:361:y:2024:i:c:s030626192400268x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.