IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v97y2010i4p502-511.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Satisfying future water demands for agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • de Fraiture, Charlotte
  • Wichelns, Dennis

Abstract

The global demand for water in agriculture will increase over time with increasing population, rising incomes, and changes in dietary preferences. Increasing demands for water by industrial and urban users, and water for the environment will intensify competition. At the same time, water scarcity is increasing in several important agricultural areas. We explore several pathways for ensuring that sufficient food is produced in the future, while also protecting the environment and reducing poverty. We examine four sets of scenarios that vary in their focus on investments in rainfed agriculture and irrigation, and the role of international trade in adjusting for national disparities in water endowments. Rainfed agriculture holds considerable potential but requires adequate mechanisms to reduce inherent risks. Irrigation expansion is warranted in places where water infrastructure is underinvested such as sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia the scope for improving irrigation performance and water productivity is high. International trade can help alleviate water problems in water-scarce areas, subject to economic and political considerations. We examine also a regionally optimized scenario that combines investments in rainfed and irrigated agriculture with strategic trade decisions. Compared to 'business as usual', this scenario reduces the amount of additional water required to meet food demands by 2050 by 80%. Some of that water could be made available for the environment and other sectors. We conclude that there are sufficient land and water resources available to satisfy global food demands during the next 50 years, but only if water is managed more effectively in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Satisfying future water demands for agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 502-511, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:97:y:2010:i:4:p:502-511
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-3774(09)00239-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renault, D. & Wallender, W. W., 2000. "Nutritional water productivity and diets," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 275-296, August.
    2. Molden, D., 1997. "Accounting for water use and productivity," IWMI Books, Reports H021374, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Castillo, G. E. & Namara, Regassa & Ravnborg, H. M. & Hanjra, M. A. & Smith, L. & Hussein, M. H. & Bene, Christopher & Cook, S. & Hirsch, D. & Polak, P. & Valee, Domitille & van Koppen, Barbara, 2007. "Reversing the flow: agricultural water management pathways for poverty reduction," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Wichelns, Dennis, 2004. "The policy relevance of virtual water can be enhanced by considering comparative advantages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 49-63, April.
    5. Molden, David & Frenken, K. & Barker, R. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Mati, Bancy & Svendsen, M. & Sadoff, Claudia W. & Finlayson, Max & Atapattu, Sithara & Giordano, Mark & Inocencio, Arlene & Lannerst, 2007. "Trends in water and agricultural development," IWMI Books, Reports H040195, International Water Management Institute.
    6. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Pingali, Prabhu, 2007. "Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 281-298, June.
    8. Rockstrom, J. & Hatibu, N. & Oweis, T. Y. & Wani, S. & Barron, J. & Bruggeman, A. & Farahani, J. & Karlberg, L. & Qiang, Z., 2007. "Managing water in rainfed agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040201, International Water Management Institute.
    9. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, D. & Rockstrom, J. & Kemp-Benedict, E. & Eriyagama, Nishadi & Gordon, L. J. & Hanjra, M. A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Huber-Lee, A. & Karlberg, L., 2007. "Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Castillo, G. E. & Namara, Regassa & Ravnborg, H. M. & Hanjra, M. A. & Smith, L. & Hussein, M. H. & Bene, C. & Cook, S. & Hirsch, D. & Polak, P. & Valee, Domitille & van Koppen, Barbara, 2007. "Reversing the flow: agricultural water management pathways for poverty reduction," IWMI Books, Reports H040197, International Water Management Institute.
    11. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Cai, X & Amarasinghe, Upali & Rosegrant, M. & Molden, David, 2004. "Does international cereal trade save water?: the impact of virtual water trade on global water use," IWMI Research Reports H035342, International Water Management Institute.
    12. Falkenmark, M. & Finlayson, Max & Gordon, L. J. & Bennett, E. M. & Chiuta, T. M. & Coates, D. & Ghosh, N. & Gopalakrishnan, M. & de Groot, R. S. & Jacks, G. & Kendy, Eloise & Oyebande, L. & Moore, M. , 2007. "Agriculture, water, and ecosystems: avoiding the costs of going too far," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Molden, David & Oweis, T. Y. & Pasquale, S. & Kijne, Jacob W. & Hanjra, M. A. & Bindraban, P. S. & Bouman, Bas A. M. & Cook, S. & Erenstein, O. & Farahani, H. & Hachum, A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Mahoo, Hen, 2007. "Pathways for increasing agricultural water productivity," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    14. Charlotte Fraiture, 2007. "Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 185-198, January.
    15. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Cai, Ximing & Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Molden, David J., 2004. "Does international cereal trade save water? The impact of virtual water trade on global water use," IWMI Research Reports 92832, International Water Management Institute.
    16. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    17. Falkenmark, M. & Finlayson, Max & Gordon, L. J. & Bennett, E. M. & Chiuta, T. M. & Coates, D. & Ghosh, N. & Gopalakrishnan, M. & de Groot, R. S. & Jacks, G. & Kendy, E. & Oyebande, L. & Moore, M. & Pe, 2007. "Agriculture, water, and ecosystems: avoiding the costs of going too far," IWMI Books, Reports H040199, International Water Management Institute.
    18. Molden, David J., 1997. "Accounting for water use and productivity," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 113623.
    19. Faures, J. M. & Svendsen, M. & Turral, Hugh & Berkhoff, J. & Bhattarai, M. & Caliz, A. M. & Darghouth, S. & Doukkali, M. R. & El-Kady, M. & Facon, T. & Gopalakrishnan, M. & Groenfeldt, D. & Hoanh, Chu, 2007. "Reinventing irrigation," IWMI Books, Reports H040202, International Water Management Institute.
    20. African Development Bank (AfDB) & FAO & IFAD & International Water Management Institute (IWMI) & World Bank, 2007. "Investment in agricultural water for poverty reduction and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: synthesis report," IWMI Research Reports H042216, International Water Management Institute.
    21. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
    22. Pingali, Prabhu, 2004. "Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy," ESA Working Papers 23795, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Investing in water for food, ecosystems, and livelihoods: An overview of the comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 495-501, April.
    2. Mukherji, Aditi & Facon, T. & Molden, David & Chartres, Colin, 2010. "Growing more food with less water: how can revitalizing Asia\u2019s irrigation help?," Conference Papers h043241, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Turral, Hugh & Svendsen, Mark & Faures, Jean Marc, 2010. "Investing in irrigation: Reviewing the past and looking to the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 551-560, April.
    4. Haileslassie, Amare & Peden, Don & Gebreselassie, Solomon & Amede, Tilahun & Descheemaeker, Katrien, 2009. "Livestock water productivity in mixed crop-livestock farming systems of the Blue Nile basin: Assessing variability and prospects for improvement," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 33-40, October.
    5. Namara, Regassa E. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Castillo, Gina E. & Ravnborg, Helle Munk & Smith, Lawrence & Van Koppen, Barbara, 2010. "Agricultural water management and poverty linkages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 520-527, April.
    6. Nangia, V. & de Fraiture, C. & Turral, H., 2008. "Water quality implications of raising crop water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 825-835, July.
    7. Huang, Feng & Li, Baoguo, 2010. "Assessing grain crop water productivity of China using a hydro-model-coupled-statistics approach: Part I: Method development and validation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(7), pages 1077-1092, July.
    8. Venot, Jean-Philippe & Sharma, Bharat R. & Rao, Kamineni V.G.K., 2008. "The Lower Krishna Basin Trajectory: Relationships between Basin Development and Downstream Environmental Degradation," IWMI Research Reports 44515, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R., 2009. "Water productivity of food grains in India: exploring potential improvements," IWMI Books, Reports H042635, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Molden, David & Oweis, Theib & Steduto, Pasquale & Bindraban, Prem & Hanjra, Munir A. & Kijne, Jacob, 2010. "Improving agricultural water productivity: Between optimism and caution," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 528-535, April.
    11. Giordano, Meredith & de Fraiture, Charlotte, 2014. "Small private irrigation: Enhancing benefits and managing trade-offs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 175-182.
    12. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R., 2009. "Water productivity of food grains in India: exploring potential improvements," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Giordano, Meredith & Turral, H. & Scheierling, S. M. & Treguer, D. O. & McCornick, Peter G, 2017. "Beyond “More Crop per Drop”: evolving thinking on agricultural water productivity," IWMI Research Reports 257962, International Water Management Institute.
    14. Facon, T. & Mukherji, Aditi, 2010. "Small-scale irrigation: is this the future?," Conference Papers h043372, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Zwart, Sander J. & Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David J., 2010. "A global benchmark map of water productivity for rainfed and irrigated wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1617-1627, October.
    16. Khan, Shahbaz & Hanjra, Munir A. & Mu, Jianxin, 2009. "Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 349-360, March.
    17. Cai, Xueliang & Sharma, Bharat R. & Matin, Mir Abdul & Sharma, Devesh & Gunasinghe, Sarath, 2010. "An assessment of crop water productivity in the Indus and Ganges River Basins: current status and scope for improvement," IWMI Research Reports 112970, International Water Management Institute.
    18. Mohammad Alauddin & Upali A. Amarasinghe & Bharat R. Sharma, 2014. "Four decades of rice water productivity in Bangladesh: A spatio-temporal analysis of district level panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 51-64.
    19. Bossio, Deborah & Geheb, Kim & Critchley, William, 2010. "Managing water by managing land: Addressing land degradation to improve water productivity and rural livelihoods," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 536-542, April.
    20. Gurib-Fakim, A. & Smith, L. & Acikgoz, N. & Avato, P. & Bossio, Deborah & Ebi, K. & Goncalves, A. & Heinemann, J. A. & Herrmann, T. M. & Padgham, J. & Pennarz, J. & Scheidegger, U. & Sebastian, L. & T, 2009. "Options to enhance the impact of AKST on development and sustainability goals," IWMI Books, Reports H042792, International Water Management Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:97:y:2010:i:4:p:502-511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.