IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-05-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Causality Relationships between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Selim Koray Demirel

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey)

  • Seyfettin Artan

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey.)

Abstract

Economic confidence is an important tool in predicting macroeconomic changes. In this study, causality relationships between the confidence level and the fundamental macroeconomic indicators are analyzed using panel data analysis for 13 European Union countries for the period 2000: 1-2014: 12. According to the obtained results, a bidirectional causality relationship between the level of confidence and consumption expenditures, industrial production and inflation; a unidirectional relationship from the level of confidence to the unemployment rate; and a unidirectional relationship from interest rates to the level of confidence were detected. These results are compatible with the view that economic confidence is a leading indicator in explaining the changes in macroeconomic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Koray Demirel & Seyfettin Artan, 2017. "The Causality Relationships between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 417-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-05-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/5356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/5356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    3. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    4. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    5. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.
    6. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1997. "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1251-1288.
    7. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    8. C. Alan Garner, 1991. "Forecasting consumer spending: should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 76(May), pages 57-71.
    9. Atsuo Utaka, 2003. "Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 337-342.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    11. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    12. Gintis, Herbert, 2000. "Beyond Homo economicus: evidence from experimental economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 311-322, December.
    13. Francesco Bogliacino & Cristiano Codagnone & Giuseppe A. Veltri, 2016. "An introduction to the special issue on “the behavioural turn in public policy: new evidence from experiments”," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(3), pages 323-332, December.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    16. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    17. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    2. Mariana Hatmanu & Cristina Cautisanu & Mihaela Ifrim, 2020. "The Impact of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and European Business Climate on Economic Growth in Romania: An ARDL Approach with Structural Breaks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    3. António Bento Caleiro, 2021. "Learning to Classify the Consumer Confidence Indicator (in Portugal)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, September.
    4. Inna Bielova & Jaroslav Halík & Lyudmila Ryabushka, 2021. "The Causal Nexus of Consumer and Business Confidence Indexes in Early Pandemic Period: Evidence from OECD Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni & Reza Tajaddini, 2017. "Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Expenditure: The Role of Consumer Confidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 216-236, February.
    4. Stephen Bruestle & W. Mark Crain, 2015. "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2430-2444, May.
    5. Pilatin Abdulmuttalip & Hacıimamoğlu Tunahan, 2023. "The relationship between social capital and economic growth on a provincial and regional basis," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 9(3), pages 153-180, October.
    6. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Hussein Moghaddam & Robert M. Kunst, 2023. "The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Major Gas-Producing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    10. Li, Xuelin & Yang, Lin, 2023. "Natural resources, remittances and carbon emissions: A Dutch Disease perspective with remittances for South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Ansari, Mohd Arshad, 2022. "Re-visiting the Environmental Kuznets curve for ASEAN: A comparison between ecological footprint and carbon dioxide emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.
    13. Zhou, Haonan & Li, Dongxin & Mustafa, Faisal & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2022. "Natural resources volatility and South Asian economies: Evaluating the role of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2021. "Towards a Global Energy-Sustainable Economy Nexus; Summing up Evidence from Recent Empirical Work," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Thi Anh-Dao Tran & Minh Hong Phi & Long Thai, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," Post-Print halshs-02972341, HAL.
    16. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    17. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "The drivers of economic complexity: International evidence from financial development and patents," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 140-150.
    18. Alvarado, Rafael & Murshed, Muntasir & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Işık, Cem & Razib Hossain, Mohammad & Tillaguango, Brayan, 2023. "Nexuses between rent of natural resources, economic complexity, and technological innovation: The roles of GDP, human capital and civil liberties," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    19. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Spur Economic Growth? New Empirical Evidence From Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(233), pages 61-84, April – J.
    20. Namahoro, J.P. & Nzabanita, J. & Wu, Q., 2021. "The impact of total and renewable energy consumption on economic growth in lower and middle- and upper-middle-income groups: Evidence from CS-DL and CCEMG analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Confidence; Panel Causality Analysis; European Union; Macroeconomic Variables JEL Classifications : C33; E20; O52 /> // Provide a local fallback if the CDN cannot be reached if (typeof google == 'undefined') { document.write(unescape(%3Cscript src='https://www.econjournals.com/lib/pkp/js/lib/jquery/jquery.min.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E)); document.write(unescape(%3Cscript src='https://www.econjournals.com/lib/pkp/js/lib/jquery/plugins/jqueryUi.min.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E)); } else { google.load(jquery; 1.4.4); google.load(jqueryui; 1.8.6); } International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues Open Journal Systems Journal Help User Username Password Remember me Notifications View Subscribe Journal Content Search Search Scope All Authors Title Abstract Index terms Full Text Browse By Issue By Author By Title Other Journals Font Size Information For Readers For Authors For Librarians Home About Login Register Search Current Archives Announcements EDITORIAL BOARD SUBMISSIONS INDEXING/ABSTRACTING CONTACT Home > Vol 7; No 5 (2017) > Demirel The Causality Relationships between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries Selim Koray Demirel; Seyfettin Artan Abstract Economic confidence is an important tool in predicting macroeconomic changes. In this study; causality relationships between the confidence level and the fundamental macroeconomic indicators are analyzed using panel data analysis for 13 European Union countries for the period 2000: 1-2014: 12. According to the obtained results; a bidirectional causality relationship between the level of confidence and consumption expenditures; industrial production and inflation; a unidirectional relationship from the level of confidence to the unemployment rate; and a unidirectional relationship from interest rates to the level of confidence were detected. These results are compatible with the view that economic confidence is a leading indicator in explaining the changes in macroeconomic indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-05-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.