IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2011-04-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of Pakistani Stock Market (2000 2010)

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Haque

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Lahore, Pakistan.)

  • Hung-Chun Liu

    (Department of Finance, Minghsin University of Science and Technology,Taiwan)

  • Fakhar-Un-Nisa

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Lahore, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This empirical paper tests out the weak form efficiency of Pakistani stock market by examining the weekly KSE ?100 index over the period 2000 ? 2010 . Return series has a leptokurtic and negatively skewed distribution, which is away from normal distribution as reflected by significant Jarque-Bera statistic. Estimated results of ADF (1979), PP (1988) and KPSS (1992) tests, Ljung-Box Q-Statistic of autocorrelations and runs test of randomness reject the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for the returns series. Moreover the results of variance ratio test (Lo and MacKinlay (1988)) also reject the RWH and prove the robustness of other estimated results. The rejection of RWH reveals that the Pakistani stock prices are not Weak Form Efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Haque & Hung-Chun Liu & Fakhar-Un-Nisa, 2011. "Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of Pakistani Stock Market (2000 2010)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 153-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2011-04-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/29/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/29/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Is South Korea's stock market efficient?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 707-710.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu & Cole, John A, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 171-188, September.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Nuray Ergul & Phil Holmes, 1997. "Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non‐linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 3(2), pages 175-190, July.
    7. Cooray, Arusha. & Wickremasinghe, Guneratne., 2007. "The efficiency of emerging stock markets: empirical evidence from the south asian region," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 171-183, September.
    8. Mohamed A. El-Erian & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1995. "Emerging Equity Markets in Middle Eastern Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 313-343, June.
    9. Abraham Abraham & Fazal J. Seyyed & Sulaiman A. Alsakran, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, August.
    10. Twm Evans, 2006. "Efficiency tests of the UK financial futures markets and the impact of electronic trading systems," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1273-1283.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    14. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60, June.
    15. Hudson, Robert & Dempsey, Michael & Keasey, Kevin, 1996. "A note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets: The application of simple technical trading rules to UK stock prices - 1935 to 1994," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1121-1132, July.
    16. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "Evaluating Financial Development In Emerging Capital Markets With Efficiency Benchmarks," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 17-44, June.
    17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    18. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
    19. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share market efficiency: tests using daily data for Australia and New Zealand," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 645-657.
    20. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, September.
    21. Mohammed Omran & Suzanne V. Farrar, 2006. "Tests of weak form efficiency in the Middle East emerging markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 13-26, March.
    22. Kuo-Ping Chang & Kuo-Shiuan Ting, 2000. "A variance ratio test of the random walk hypothesis for Taiwan's stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 525-532.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    2. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    3. Serpil TURKYILMAZ & Mesut BALIBEY, 2014. "Long Memory Behavior in the Returns of Pakistan Stock Market: ARFIMA-FIGARCH Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 400-410.
    4. Ume Habibah & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Manzoor Ali Mirani, 2017. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: A Case of Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(7), pages 551-564, July.
    5. Sehrish Kayani & Usman Ayub & Imran Abbas Jadoon, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Artificial Neural Networks: Evidence from Pakistan," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(2), pages 190-203, June.
    6. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    7. Naz, Salma & Razaque, Seema & Khuwaja, Hyder Ali & Ahmed, Niaz, 2014. "Validity of EMH; A Case Study of KSE-100 Index," Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business, Sukkur IBA University, vol. 1(1), pages 112-126, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Müge Özdemir, 2022. "Analyzing the Efficient Market Hypothesis with the Structural Break and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: An Application on Borsa Istanbul," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 257-282, December.
    2. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    3. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    4. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    6. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    7. Truong Dong Loc & Ger Lanjouw & Robert Lensink, 2010. "Stock-market efficiency in thin-trading markets: the case of the Vietnamese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3519-3532.
    8. Rompotis, Gerasimos G., 2011. "Testing weak-form efficiency of exchange traded funds market," MPRA Paper 36020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    10. Basher ABUZAROUR, 2001. "Testing Random Walk Behavior and Market Efficiency: Evidence from New Emerging Equity Markets in the Middle East," Middle East and North Africa 330400002, EcoMod.
    11. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chancharat, Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Structural Breaks and Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis in International Stock Prices," MPRA Paper 50394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Schindler, Felix & Rottke, Nico & Füss, Roland, 2009. "Testing the predictability and efficiency of securitized real estate markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    16. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    17. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2007. "Is South Korea's stock market efficient? A note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 71-74.
    18. Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2018. "Stock market efficiency: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 139-153.
    19. Ushna Akber & Nabeel Muhammad, 2014. "Is Pakistan Stock Market Moving towards Weak-Form Efficiency? Evidence from The Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of Free-Float of Shares of KSE 30 Index," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 808-836, June.
    20. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ghada Abbas, 2014. "Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 317-325, October.
    22. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak Form Efficiency; Variance Raito; Random Walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2011-04-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.