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The Role of Ancillarity in Inference for Non-stationary Variables

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  • Johansen, Soren

Abstract

Some examples of the regression method are compared with likelihood-based inference. It is shown that, although the asymptotic theory is distinctly different for ergodic and nonergodic processes, the likelihood methods lead to the result that asymptotic inference can be conducted in the same way for the two cases by appealing to classical conditioning arguments from statistics using the notion of S-ancillarity or strong exogeneity. It is pointed out that the Fisher information can be considered a measure of the conditional variance of the maximum likelihood estimator given the available information in the sample. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Johansen, Soren, 1995. "The Role of Ancillarity in Inference for Non-stationary Variables," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 302-320, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:105:y:1995:i:429:p:302-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
    2. Arvid Raknerud, 2001. "A State Space Approach for Estimating VAR Models for Panel Data with Latent Dynamic Components," Discussion Papers 295, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Søren Johansen, 2010. "An Extension of Cointegration to Fractional Autoregressive Processes," Discussion Papers 10-28, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Donald Alan Pierce & Ruggero Bellio, 2017. "Modern Likelihood-Frequentist Inference," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 85(3), pages 519-541, December.
    5. Rajarshi Mitra, 2013. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Test for Cambodia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 117-121.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.

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