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HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? Evidence from panel-data for African countries

Author

Listed:
  • Arshia Amiri

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran)

  • Ulf-g Gerdtham

    (Health Economics & Management, Institute of Economic Research, Lund University)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    (Aix Marseille School of Economics (Greqam CNRS & SESSTIM Inserm IRD Université Aix-Marseille))

Abstract

To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.

Suggested Citation

  • Arshia Amiri & Ulf-g Gerdtham & Bruno Ventelou, 2012. "HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? Evidence from panel-data for African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 1060-1067.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kodila-Tedika , Oasis, 2014. "HIV/Aids and Alcohol: Re-Examination of the Relation from African Data," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(2), pages 40-45.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV-AIDS; GDP; Granger test; non-causality test; African countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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