IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-11-00440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Policies and the Impact of Natural Disasters on Economic Growth: A Threshold Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zeb Aurangzeb

    (University of Guelph)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    (University of Guelph)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on the long-term macroeconomic performance of a country. More specifically, we want to see whether the impact of natural disasters on economic growth is uniform across countries or it is differentiated according to the macroeconomic policy environment and other structural characteristics of the countries at hand. In order to test this empirically we use the Threshold Regression (TR) approach of Hansen (2000) and data from 90 countries over the period of 1970 to 2001. Our analysis reveals several interesting patterns such as: countries with higher per capita income, higher government spending, higher degree of openness to trade, less fiscal imbalances and greater financial stability are better able to withstand the disaster shock and further prevent its impact on long-term economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeb Aurangzeb & Thanasis Stengos, 2012. "Economic Policies and the Impact of Natural Disasters on Economic Growth: A Threshold Regression Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 229-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2012/Volume32/EB-12-V32-I1-P21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Ilan Noy & Aekkanush Nualsri, 2007. "What do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us about Growth Theories?," Working Papers 200728, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    5. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    6. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    7. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    8. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2008. "Natural Disasters As Creative Destruction? Evidence From Developing Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 214-226, April.
    9. Raddatz, Claudio, 2009. "The wrath of God : macroeconomic costs of natural disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5039, The World Bank.
    10. Eduardo Rodriguez-Oreggia & Alejandro De La Fuente & Rodolfo De La Torre & Hector A. Moreno, 2013. "Natural Disasters, Human Development and Poverty at the Municipal Level in Mexico," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 442-455, March.
    11. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    12. Christian R. Jaramillo H., 2009. "Do Natural Disasters Have Long-term Effects on Growth?," Documentos CEDE 6647, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    14. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cécile Couharde & Rémi Generoso, 2015. "Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Junaid Khan & Muhammad Faizan Malik & Muhammad Ilyas, 2018. "Banking Sector Performance and Political Stability9apos9s Impact on Economic Growth in Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(1), pages 81-89, June.
    3. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Tsilika, Kyriaki, 2018. "Spatiotemporal distribution of inclusive wealth data: An illustrated guide," MPRA Paper 85711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
    5. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Tsilika, Kyriaki, 2018. "The multi-layer nature of Inclusive Wealth data and their dynamic interpretation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 160-170.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    3. Ji Guo & Hui Liu & Xianhua Wu & Jiong Gu & Shunfeng Song & Yinshan Tang, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "The Aftermath of Natural Disasters: Beyond Destruction," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 25-35, July.
    5. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake," Discussion papers 13063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Nadia Benali & Mounir Ben Mbarek & Rochdi Feki, 2019. "Natural Disaster, Government Revenues and Expenditures: Evidence from High and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(2), pages 695-710, June.
    7. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
    8. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Industrial Clusters and Manufacturing Plant Survival," Discussion papers 15008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Ilan Noy, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Economic Policy for the Pacific Rim," Working Papers 201201, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    10. Eric Nazindigouba Kere & Somlanaré Romuald Kinda & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Hurt Tax Resource Mobilization?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01242968, HAL.
    11. Yashobanta Parida & Swati Saini & Joyita Roy Chowdhury, 2021. "Economic growth in the aftermath of floods in Indian states," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 535-561, January.
    12. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1001, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    13. Kousky, Carolyn, 2012. "Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-28, Resources for the Future.
    14. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    15. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2014. "Natural disasters and macroeconomic performance: The role of residential investment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 194 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    17. Michael Berlemann & Max Steinhardt & Jascha Tutt, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 763, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    18. Davide Antonioli & Alberto Marzucchi & Marco Modica, 2022. "Resilience, Performance and Strategies in Firms’ Reactions to the Direct and Indirect Effects of a Natural Disaster," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, September.
    19. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    20. Beyer, Robert C. M. & Narayanan, Abhinav & Thakur, Gogol Mitra, 2022. "Natural Disasters and Economic Dynamics: Evidence from the Kerala Floods," Working Papers 22/383, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Disasters; Economic Policies; Economic Growth; Threshold Regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.