IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-05aa0015.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Kitov

    (IDG RAS)

Abstract

Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by a trend value that evolves through time inversely proportional to the square root of the real GDP per capita. The economic trend determines inflation trend rate also evolving in time. The defining age population change determines fluctuations around the trend inflation. During the periods of very large negative population changes one can observe deflation. In the USA, the defining age is nine years. Thus, the population estimates effectively allow predicting inflation through the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(16), pages 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05aa0015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2006/Volume28/EB-05AA0015A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05aa0015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.