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Unit root cycles in the US unemployment rate

Author

Listed:
  • Shunsuke Managi

    (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

Abstract

The annual structure of the U.S. unemployment rate is examined in this article by means of new statistical techniques developed by Robinson (1994), which permit us to test unit root cycles in raw time series. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions and unlike other procedures, they allow us to determine the number of periods per cycle. The results show that the cycles in the U.S. unemployment seem to occur approximately every four or five years.

Suggested Citation

  • Shunsuke Managi, 2004. "Unit root cycles in the US unemployment rate," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-03c20016
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bierens, Herman J., 2001. "Complex Unit Roots And Business Cycles: Are They Real?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 962-983, October.
    2. Arteche, Josu & Robinson, Peter M., 1998. "Seasonal and cyclical long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Juha Ahtola & George C. Tiao, 1987. "Distributions Of Least Squares Estimators Of Autoregressive Parameters For A Process With Complex Roots On The Unit Circle," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment Unit root cycles.;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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