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Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions

Author

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  • Catalin Angelo Ioan

    (Danubius University of Galati, Romania)

  • Gina Ioan

    (Danubius University of Galati, Romania)

Abstract

In this article, we will carry out an analysis on the regularity of the Gross Domestic Product of a country, in our case the United States. The method of analysis is based on a new method of analysis – the cyclic regressions based on the Fourier series of a function. Another point of view is that of considering instead the growth rate of GDP the speed of variation of this rate, computed as a numerical derivative. The obtained results show a cycle for this indicator for 71 years, the mean square error being 0.93%. The method described allows an prognosis on short-term trends in GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Catalin Angelo Ioan & Gina Ioan, 2011. "Analysis of the Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product by Means of Cyclic Regressions," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 4(4), pages 114-126, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2011:i:4:p:114-126
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    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/948/914
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
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    Keywords

    GDP; cycle; Fourier; regression;
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