IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwvjh/78-1-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rationale Marktübertreibungen im Zusammenhang der aktuellen Finanzmarktkrise

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Klug
  • Hermann Locarek-Junge
  • Max Mihm

Abstract

The paper deals with the motives of people to invest in overvalued markets. We resort to the concepts of behavioural fi nance to describe the most important factors. Based on these fi ndings we deduct measures to avoid misjudgement of markets participants. As Bikhchandani and Sharma (2000) show, the concept of herd behaviour plays a decisive role in explaining exuberance in markets. There are incentives for investors, money managers and analysts to imitate other's actions. Furthermore, conservatism as well as heuristics like representativeness may also lead to a confi rmation of prevailing trends. Another driver of misjudgement is the usage of heuristics like representativeness. The authors consider that the provision of information may substantially contribute to the reduction of misjudgement and exuberance in markets. Both availability and quality of information are important. Another approach aims at the regulation of bank lending, which should be limited particularly during a booming economy. Der Untersuchungsgegenstand der Arbeit ist die Darstellung der wichtigsten Anlegermotive bei Marktübertreibungen. Es wird dabei auf Konzepte der verhaltensorientierten Kapitalmarktforschung zurückgegriffen. Basierend auf den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen werden Lösungsansätze zur Vermeidung von Marktübertreibungen abgeleitet. Untersuchungen, beispielsweise durch Bikhchandani und Sharma (2000), haben gezeigt, dass Herdenverhalten eine wichtige Rolle bei der Erklärung von Preisübertreibungen spielt. Dabei kann es rational sein, sich konform zur Masse der Marktteilnehmer zu verhalten. Neben dem Konzept des Herdenverhaltens kann Konservatismus unter Marktteilnehmern zur Bestätigung vorherrschender Trends beitragen. Heuristiken werden angewandt, um komplexe Sachverhalte zu vereinfachen. Insbesondere die Repräsentativitätsheuristik kann zu einer Verstärkung bestehender Preisübertreibungen führen. Die Autoren sind der Ansicht, dass vor allem eine Verbesserung der Informationsbasis zur Reduzierung von Fehleinschätzungen durch Marktteilnehmer beitragen kann. Sowohl die Verfügbarkeit als auch die Qualität der Informationen spielen dabei eine Rolle. Ein weiterer Lösungsansatz betrifft die Risikoeinstellung und Kreditvergabe der Banken. In Boomphasen sollte das Risiko eines Crashs berücksichtigt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Klug & Hermann Locarek-Junge & Max Mihm, 2009. "Rationale Marktübertreibungen im Zusammenhang der aktuellen Finanzmarktkrise," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 25-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-1-3
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.78.1.25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.78.1.25
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3790/vjh.78.1.25?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    2. Gu, Chen & Guo, Xu & Zhang, Chengping, 2022. "Analyst target price revisions and institutional herding," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Ferdinand Thies & Sören Wallbach & Michael Wessel & Markus Besler & Alexander Benlian, 2022. "Initial coin offerings and the cryptocurrency hype - the moderating role of exogenous and endogenous signals," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(3), pages 1691-1705, September.
    4. Ruomeng Cui & Dennis J. Zhang & Achal Bassamboo, 2019. "Learning from Inventory Availability Information: Evidence from Field Experiments on Amazon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1216-1235, March.
    5. Stéphan Marette, 2017. "Jill E. Hobbs, Stavroula Malla, Eric K. Sogah and May T. Yeung, 2014, Regulating Health Foods. Policy Challenges and Consumer Conundrums," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 98(1), pages 93-94, July.
    6. Jonas Hedlund & Carlos Oyarzun, 2018. "Imitation in heterogeneous populations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 937-973, June.
    7. Cao, Melanie & Shi, Shouyong, 2006. "Signaling in the Internet craze of initial public offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 818-833, September.
    8. Martin Andersson & Johan P. Larsson, 2022. "Historical local industry structure, voting patterns and the long-run entrepreneurial character of regions: Swedish examples," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(3), pages 611-631, December.
    9. Wei He & Qian Wang, 2020. "The peer effect of corporate financial decisions around split share structure reform in China," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 474-493, July.
    10. Ben Klemens, 2013. "A Peer-based Model of Fat-tailed Outcomes," Papers 1304.0718, arXiv.org.
    11. Kraemer, Carlo & Noth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Information aggregation with costly information and random ordering: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 423-432, March.
    12. Youn Kue Na & Sungmin Kang, 2018. "Sustainable Diffusion of Fashion Information on Mobile Friends-Based Social Network Service," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Ye Zhang, 2020. "Discrimination in the Venture Capital Industry: Evidence from Field Experiments," Papers 2010.16084, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    14. Fishman, Arthur & Fishman, Ram & Gneezy, Uri, 2019. "A tale of two food stands: Observational learning in the field," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 101-108.
    15. Frey, Rainer & Hussinger, Katrin, 2006. "The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,45, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2009. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 206-233, March.
    17. Jacob K. Goeree & Leeat Yariv, 2015. "Conformity in the lab," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 15-28, July.
    18. Buechel, Berno & Hellmann, Tim & Klößner, Stefan, 2015. "Opinion dynamics and wisdom under conformity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 240-257.
    19. Boğaçhan Çelen & Kyle Hyndman, 2012. "An experiment of social learning with endogenous timing," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 16(2), pages 251-268, September.
    20. Bohl, Martin T. & Branger, Nicole & Trede, Mark, 2017. "The case for herding is stronger than you think," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 30-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; effi cient markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-1-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.