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Beschäftigungsprognosen auf Basis amtlicher Firmendaten als Instrument einer handlungsorientierten Politikberatung am Beispiel Brandenburg

Author

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  • Markus Höhne
  • Carsten Kampe
  • Anna Lejpras
  • Andreas Stephan

Abstract

The econometric model described in this paper presents an innovative approach of the firm level data (micro data) usage, compiled from official statistics for the projection of the demand for labour differentiated at the sectoral and/or regional level. The aim of our dynamic model is to determine a short term oriented forecast of the employment process - with the horizon from 12 to 24 months - taking into consideration the turnover, order situation, wage level and export rates developments for the metal sector in Brandenburg as an example. The forecast model is based on the firm data panel from "the Monthly Report for Companies from the Manufacturing Industry as well from Mining and Quarrying of Stones and Earths". Basically our model seems to be an appropriate forecasting instrument of the employment development for the action-oriented policy advisory services. Das in diesem Artikel beschriebene ökonometrische Prognosemodell stellt einen innovativen Ansatz der Nutzung von amtlichen Firmendaten (Mikrodaten) für die Vorhersage von sektoral bzw. regional differenzierten Fachkräftebedarfen dar. Ziel unseres dynamischen Modells ist eine kurzfristig orientierte Prognose des Beschäftigungsverlaufs - mit einem Horizont von 12 bis 24 Monaten - unter Berücksichtigung der Umsatz-, Auftrags-, Lohn- sowie Exportentwicklung am Beispiel Brandenburger Metallwirtschaft zu ermitteln. Die Grundlage für das Prognosemodell bildet ein Betriebspanel aus dem "Monatsbericht für Betriebe des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes sowie des Bergbaus und der Gewinnung von Steinen und Erden". Grundsätzlich kann festgestellt werden, dass das Modell als ein geeignetes Prognoseinstrument der kurzfristigen Beschäftigungsentwicklung für eine handlungsorientierte Politikberatung anzusehen ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Höhne & Carsten Kampe & Anna Lejpras & Andreas Stephan, 2007. "Beschäftigungsprognosen auf Basis amtlicher Firmendaten als Instrument einer handlungsorientierten Politikberatung am Beispiel Brandenburg," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(3), pages 88-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-3-8
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.76.3.88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
    2. Cörvers,Frank & Heijke,Hans, 2005. "Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: Some key issues," ROA Working Paper 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    3. Cörvers, F. & Heijke, J.A.M., 2004. "Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: some key issues," ROA Working Paper 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour demand; forecast model; metal sector; Brandenburg;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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