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Inflation in the Euro Area: Factors Mostly Have Only a Temporary Effect, but Risk of Prolonged Elevated Inflation Remains

Author

Listed:
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Gökhan Ider

Abstract

Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further indications that inflation in the euro area will remain elevated in the coming months. This report analyzes the factors that could have an impact on inflation. However, most of these factors, such as the fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand only have temporary effects. Others, such as the unemployment gap, weigh less severely than expected. A change in inflation expectations, which could trigger a wage-price spiral, poses the main risk for a prolonged period of elevated inflation. While these expectations are still in line with the inflation target, the ECB should keep a critical eye on their development and, if necessary, take decisive action to maintain its credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Bernoth & Gökhan Ider, 2021. "Inflation in the Euro Area: Factors Mostly Have Only a Temporary Effect, but Risk of Prolonged Elevated Inflation Remains," DIW Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 11(41/42), pages 315-323.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdwr:dwr11-41-1
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.827094.de/dwr-21-41-1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Rizwan & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Nguyen, Dung T.K., 2023. "Inflation, oil prices, and economic activity in recent crisis: Evidence from the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; inflation expectations; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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