IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jhisec/v44y2022i3p456-476_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Beyond Random Causes: Harmonic Analysis Of Business Cycles At The Moscow Conjuncture Institute

Author

Listed:
  • Vianna Franco, Marco P.
  • Ribeiro, Leonardo Costa
  • Albuquerque, Eduardo da Motta e

Abstract

This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles and its ability to both decompose and build cycles, as received at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It traces how the Fourier transform arrived at the Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore, in the works and actions of Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov, and Nikolai Kondratiev, ultimately leading to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article “The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes.” Although the evidence does not warrant the assumption that there was an orchestrated effort at the Institute to push forward a research agenda on harmonic analysis of business cycles, it certainly unfolded as more than the summation of random events and individual incursions. Moreover, the Institute as a whole could have produced much more on this matter if it had escaped Stalinist oppression for at least a few more years.

Suggested Citation

  • Vianna Franco, Marco P. & Ribeiro, Leonardo Costa & Albuquerque, Eduardo da Motta e, 2022. "Beyond Random Causes: Harmonic Analysis Of Business Cycles At The Moscow Conjuncture Institute," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 456-476, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jhisec:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:456-476_7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1053837221000092/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moore, Henry Ludwell, 1914. "Economics Cycles: Their law and cause," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number moore1914.
    2. Vincent Barnett, 1995. "A long wave goodbye: Kondrat'ev and the Conjuncture institute, 1920–28," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 413-441.
    3. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    4. Mauro Boianovsky & Hans-Michael Trautwein, 2007. "Johan Åkerman vs. Ragnar Frisch on Quantitative Business Cycle Analysis," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 487-517.
    5. Turner, Paul & Wood, Justine, 2020. "New Perspectives On Henry Ludwell Moore’S Use Of Harmonic Analysis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 507-520, December.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Philip Mirowski, 1990. "Problems in the Paternity of Econometrics: Henry Ludwell Moore," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 587-609, Winter.
    8. Thomas F. Cargill, 1974. "Early Applications of Spectral Methods to Economic Time Series," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2022. "Non-resonating cycles in a dynamic model for investment behavior," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carret, Vincent, 2021. "Fluctuations and growth in Ragnar Frisch’s rocking horse model," OSF Preprints 69nsg, Center for Open Science.
    2. Turner, Paul & Wood, Justine, 2020. "New Perspectives On Henry Ludwell Moore’S Use Of Harmonic Analysis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 507-520, December.
    3. Grinin, Leonid E. & Grinin, Anton L. & Korotayev, Andrey, 2017. "Forthcoming Kondratieff wave, Cybernetic Revolution, and global ageing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 52-68.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Lenfant, 2006. "Complementarity and Demand Theory: From the 1920s to the 1940s," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 38(5), pages 48-85, Supplemen.
    5. Vincent Carret, 2020. "And yet it rocks! Fluctuations and growth in Ragnar Frisch's rocking horse model," Working Papers halshs-02969773, HAL.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    7. Paul Ormerod, 2010. "La crisis actual y la culpabilidad de la teoría macroeconómica," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 111-128, January-J.
    8. Ziad Rotaba & Catherine Beaudry, 2012. "How Do High, Medium, And Low Tech Firms Innovate? A System Of Innovation (Si) Approach," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(05), pages 1-23.
    9. Sehgal, Sanjay & Pandey, Piyush & Diesting, Florent, 2017. "Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 173-190.
    10. Zhao, Zhibiao & Wu, Wei Biao, 2009. "Nonparametric inference of discretely sampled stable Lévy processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 83-92, November.
    11. Olivier Le Courtois, 2018. "Some Further Results on the Tempered Multistable Approach," Post-Print hal-02312142, HAL.
    12. Karolin Sjöö, 2016. "Innovation and industrial renewal in Sweden, 1970–2007," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(3), pages 258-277, September.
    13. Barunik, Jozef & Vacha, Lukas, 2010. "Monte Carlo-based tail exponent estimator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4863-4874.
    14. Dominique Guégan & Wayne Tarrant, 2012. "On the necessity of five risk measures," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 533-552, November.
    15. García Ruiz Reyna Susana & Cruz Aké Salvador & Venegas Martínez Francisco, 2014. "Una medida de eficiencia de mercado: Un enfoque de teoría de la información," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(4), pages 137-166, octubre-d.
    16. Ho, Hwai-Chung, 2015. "Sample quantile analysis for long-memory stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 360-370.
    17. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    18. Nikita Ratanov, 2008. "Option Pricing Model Based on a Markov-modulated Diffusion with Jumps," Papers 0812.0761, arXiv.org.
    19. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jhisec:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:456-476_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/het .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.