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Tugan-Baranovsky as a Pioneer of Trade Cycle Analysis

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  • Barnett, Vincent

Abstract

Mikhail Ivanovich Tugan-Baranovsky (1865–1919) has not unjustly been calle the greatest Russian economist of all time (Jasny 1972, p. 159). This neglecte the fact that he was born near Kharkov and towards the end of his life came to see the Ukraine as his homeland, but the evaluation itself is not so far from the truth. However, opinion about the precise importance of Tugan-Baranovsky work to the development of trade cycle analysis has varied widely. J. M. Keynes and A. H. Hansen were both highly respectful of Tugan's contribution. For example, in the Treatise on Money, Keynes wrote in regards to business cycle theory that he was “in strong sympathy with the school of writers … of which Tugan-Baranovski was the first and most original†(Keynes 1930, vol. 2, p. 100 In his 1951 work, Business Cycles and National Income, Hansen was enthusiastic describing Tugan as “cutting his way though the jungle to a new outlook†(Hansen 1951, p. 281). This suggests that some aspects of both British an American Keynesianism might have originated in Tugan's work, or at least bee influenced by it. W. W. Rostow was also impressed by Tugan's approach, statin that it “took business cycle analysis some distance beyond Juglar and Marx†(Rostow 1990, p. 261).

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, Vincent, 2001. "Tugan-Baranovsky as a Pioneer of Trade Cycle Analysis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 443-466, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jhisec:v:23:y:2001:i:04:p:443-466_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Bazhal, Iurii, 2013. "Innovation theory of business cycles and economic growth," MPRA Paper 53688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2014.
    2. Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2008. "Keynes on the Marginal Efficiency of Capital and the Great Depression," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 16(3), pages 65-78.
    3. Daniele Besomi, 2006. "'Marxism Gone Mad': Tugan-Baranovsky on crises, their possibility and their periodicity," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 147-171.
    4. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2005. "Falling Rate of Profit and Overaccumulation in Marx and Keynes," MPRA Paper 35980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vincent Barnett, 2006. "Chancing an interpretation: Slutsky's random cycles revisited," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 411-432.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Pencho D. Penchev, 2014. "The "Alternative" Socialism of Professor Alexander Tsankov," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 61-75, April.
    9. Thomas C. Owen, 2013. "Measuring business cycles in the Russian Empire," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(3), pages 895-916, August.
    10. Colacchio, Giorgio, 2005. "On the origins of non-proportional economic dynamics: A note on Tugan-Baranowsky's traverse analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-521, December.

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