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Stock Returns as Predictors of Interest Rates and Inflation

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  • Titman, Sheridan
  • Warga, Arthur

Abstract

This study examines whether stock returns provide forecasts of changes in interest rates and inflation. In contrast to earlier work that indicated that changes in expected inflation negatively affect stock returns, we find a statistically significant positive relation between stock returns and future inflation rate changes as well as a significant positive relation between stock returns and future interest rate changes. Real estate investment trusts, which are particularly interest- and inflation-sensitive securities, provide better forecasts than a broad market index. Finally, we find that most of the evidence supporting the forecasting ability of stock returns occurs in the October 1979 to October 1982 period when the Federal Reserve Board chose not to counteract interest rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Titman, Sheridan & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Stock Returns as Predictors of Interest Rates and Inflation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 47-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:24:y:1989:i:01:p:47-58_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Lekkos, Ilias & Milas, Costas, 2004. "Time-varying excess returns on UK government bonds: A non-linear approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-62, January.
    2. Zwak-Cantoriu Maria-Cristina, 2023. "The Contagion of International Crises: Implications of Inflation and Investor Sentiment on Stock and Treasury bond Returns," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1818-1838, July.
    3. Christopher T. Downing & Francis A. Longstaff & Michael A. Rierson, 2012. "Inflation Tracking Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 18135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November.
    5. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2002. "Do Industries Lead the Stock Market? Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6x49x543, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Wang, Han & Wu, Xingyi & Wu, Di & Nie, Xin, 2019. "Will land development time restriction reduce land price? The perspective of American call options," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-83.
    7. Guan-Ru Chen & Ming-Hung Wu, 2013. "How does Monetary Policy Influence Capital Markets? Using a Threshold Regression Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 31-47, March.
    8. Bruno, Salvatore & Chincarini, Ludwig, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non-US investors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
    9. William Hardin & Xiaoquan Jiang & Zhonghua Wu, 2012. "REIT Stock Prices with Inflation Hedging and Illusion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 262-287, June.
    10. Wei-han Liu & Zhefang Zhou, 2009. "Inflation-hedging Behavior of a Securitized Real Estate Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(3), pages 221-251.
    11. Ran Lu-Andrews & Yin Yu-Thompson, 2018. "The Geography of REIT Investment in Audit Services," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 169-226.
    12. Kosmas Njanike & Pension Katsuro & Michael Mudzura, 2009. "Factors Influencing the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Performance (2002-2007)," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(2), pages 161-172.
    13. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2010. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between the interest rates and the stock prices in Romania," MPRA Paper 36716, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2011.
    14. Byun, Jong-Cook & Chen, Son-Nan, 1996. "International real interest rate parity with error correction models," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-151.
    15. Cifter Atilla & Ozun Alper, 2008. "Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices in Turkey Using a Multi-Scale Causality Test," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 68-79, April.
    16. Woon Weng WONG & Wejendra Reddy, 2018. "Evaluation of Australian REIT Performance and the Impact of Interest Rates and Leverage," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70.
    17. Salvatore Bruno & Ludwig Chincarini, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non‐US investors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
    18. Omran, Mohammed & Pointon, John, 2001. "Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The case of Egypt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 263-279, September.
    19. Azzam, Islam, 2010. "Stock exchange demutualization and performance," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 211-222.

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