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Fiscal News and Inflationary Expectations in Germany after World War I

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  • Webb, Steven B.

Abstract

Inflation in Germany from 1919 to 1923 resulted from the accumulation and the anticipation of government deficits. Inflationary expectations depended therefore on fiscal news. Allied demands for reparations, the occupation of the Ruhr, and domestic revolts were important negative news and led to increased inflation. Tax reforms and eventually the end to government deficits were important positive news and ushered in periods of price stability. Political events were fiscal news as they changed the chances for the government to balance the budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Webb, Steven B., 1986. "Fiscal News and Inflationary Expectations in Germany after World War I," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 769-794, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:46:y:1986:i:03:p:769-794_04
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Burkett, Paul, 1996. "Hyperinflation, the exchange rate and endogenous money: post-World War I Germany revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 599-621, August.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Jose A Lopez & Kris James Mitchener, 2021. "Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I [Modeling and forecasting realized volatility]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 450-475.
    4. Reghezza, Alessio & Seghezza, Elena & Thornton, John, 2020. "Expectations in an open economy hyperinflation: Evidence from Germany 1921–23," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Mark Harrison, 2016. "Myths of the Great War," Studies in Economic History, in: Jari Eloranta & Eric Golson & Andrei Markevich & Nikolaus Wolf (ed.), Economic History of Warfare and State Formation, pages 135-158, Springer.
    6. Łyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna, 2020. "Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 296-310.
    7. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    8. Miguel A. Kiguel & Nissan Liviatan, 1995. "Stopping Three Big Inflations: Argentina, Brazil, and Peru," NBER Chapters, in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 369-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. DUDLEY, Leonard & WITT, Ulrich, 2003. "Yesterday’s Games: Contingency Learning and the Growth of Public Spending, 1890-1938," Cahiers de recherche 2003-20, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    10. P.Antipa, 2014. "How Fiscal Policy Affects the Price Level: Britain’s First Experience with Paper Money," Working papers 525, Banque de France.
    11. Joanna Mackiewicz­‑Łyziak, 2014. "Wpływ długu publicznego na oczekiwania inflacyjne konsumentów w Europie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 113-132.
    12. Gregori Galofre-Vila, 2021. "The Costs of Hyperinflation: Germany 1923," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2101, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    13. José Alves, 2018. "Tax incidence and fiscal systems: some problems on tax compared history in XIX and XX centuries," Working Papers REM 2018/45, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Antipa, P., 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Value of Money: Lessons from the British Paper Pound, 1797-1821," Working papers 466, Banque de France.

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