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Threat Escalation and Crisis Stability: A Game-theoretic Analysis

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  • Brams, Steven J.
  • Kilgour, D. Marc

Abstract

We develop a model of crisis stability based on a deterrence game. Players are assumed to be able to choose any level of initial cooperation or noncooperation; the more cooperative player (if there is one) may then choose to retaliate. In a crisis, players are assumed to have escalated their conflict and desire to stabilize it before it explodes. Players can, by threatening their opponent, stabilize the new status quo. In addition, points of threat escalation are identified at which neither player can prevent the opponent from escalating further without threatening the opponent more severely than before the crisis erupted, thereby heating up an already tense situation. Crisis stabilization is aided by being close to the full-cooperation position, though, paradoxically, both players may benefit from having created a crisis that only escalating threats may resolve. We discuss ways of avoiding threat escalation and the increased risk of war that it entails, especially in conflicts between the superpowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Brams, Steven J. & Kilgour, D. Marc, 1987. "Threat Escalation and Crisis Stability: A Game-theoretic Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 833-850, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:81:y:1987:i:03:p:833-850_20
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    Cited by:

    1. Srinivas Arigapudi & Yuval Heller & Amnon Schreiber, 2021. "Sampling dynamics and stable mixing in hawk-dove games," Papers 2107.08423, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour, 1987. "Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 547-572, December.
    3. Arigapudi, Srinivas & Heller, Yuval & Schreiber, Amnon, 2021. "Sampling Dynamics and Stable Mixing in Hawk–Dove Games," MPRA Paper 108819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jean-Pierre P. Langlois, 1989. "Modeling Deterrence and International Crises," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 67-83, March.
    5. Lisa J. Carlson, 1995. "A Theory of Escalation And International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 511-534, September.
    6. Frank P. Harvey, 1999. "Practicing Coercion," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(6), pages 840-871, December.
    7. Zhanna Terechshenko, 2020. "Hot under the collar: A latent measure of interstate hostility," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 764-776, November.

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